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Sarajevo Times > Blog > WORLD NEWS > Is ISIL on the Verge of a major Comeback after Assad’s Fall
WORLD NEWS

Is ISIL on the Verge of a major Comeback after Assad’s Fall

Published December 18, 2024
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A senior commander of Kurdish forces in Syria has warned that the renewed so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is beginning to exploit the chaos resulting from the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

The rapid advance of opposition groups toward Damascus has taken center stage, but the revolution has created a power vacuum across the country. What is happening in Syria presents both an opportunity and a moment of great danger.

As the country struggles to emerge from the darkness and brutality of Assad’s regime, numerous groups are vying for positions in this new reality – precisely the space ISIL is trying to use to gather strength. In the northeast, the Kurds are concerned about what might happen.

One of the most important figures in this region is General Mazloum Abdi, the supreme commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). He warns the West that ISIL is already attempting to exploit the turmoil.

“ISIL is now stronger in the Syrian desert. They were previously confined to remote areas and hiding, but now they have more freedom of movement because they do not encounter issues with other groups and are not in conflict with them. In areas under our control, their activities have also increased. Just a few days ago, three members of the internal security forces were killed near al-Hasakah in an ISIL operation,” he said.

Since the start of the civil war, Syria has been divided into various zones of control. Regional and international powers also wield influence in certain areas – Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the United States (U.S.).

The SDF was formed in 2015 as a coalition to combat ISIL. The SDF primarily consists of Kurdish fighters from the People’s Defense Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), supported and trained by the U.S. Ideologically, the SDF is connected to the territory known as Rojava, an autonomously administered region.

After ISIL’s defeat in 2019, the SDF also took control of large areas in northeastern Syria, which now represents a crisis point. Opposition rebel groups aim to seize these towns, villages, and settlements, and clashes have already occurred.

General Mazloum hopes the situation can be controlled. He states that local commanders are communicating with their counterparts from rebel groups to ease tensions. However, the relationship with Turkish-backed forces, such as the Syrian National Army (SNA), is much harder to manage. Clashes with these groups have been more intense.

Turkey is uneasy about Kurdish influence along its border and seeks to suppress it. It has launched invasions into Syria and sponsored militias to achieve its goals. Ankara views the YPG and YPJ – key components of the SDF – as no different from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a separatist movement it has designated as a terrorist organization.

Anti-terrorism operations suspended

If tensions are not brought under control, they could significantly escalate. Currently, the U.S. is trying to mediate. However, General Mazloum says clashes with Turkish-backed groups are making it harder to focus on preventing ISIL’s resurgence.

Due to the security situation, they have had to suspend anti-terrorism operations.

“Joint operations against ISIL are currently suspended. This is not a decision but a military reality, as the coalition is also preoccupied with the ongoing conflict. That is why I emphasize that if these attacks continue, joint operations will remain on hold,” Mazloum says.

He also warns of the possibility that ISIL prisoners held in camps and prisons could escape amid the chaos. ISIL encourages attacks on these prisons as a means of freeing its most ideologically hardened recruits.

“Overall, the effectiveness of our forces and coalition forces against ISIL diminishes when we are focused on protecting civilians and our communities, as efforts are redirected to the ongoing conflict. That is why I say, if the fighting continues and intensifies, it will benefit ISIL. Frankly, there is currently a significant threat to the security of these detention centers,” Mazloum adds.

As Syrians celebrate the end of Assad’s regime, they face a grave danger and the threat of ISIL’s resurgence – a group the West believed had been defeated.

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