The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, dramatically announced changes to the political situation in the Western Balkans on Tuesday, referring primarily to Serbia and Kosovo, adding that some want the exodus of Serbs from the former Kosovo.
He made his conclusions based on two decisions of the Kosovo authorities, which he said have the support of the Quinte countries, adding that the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina has ended.
“They made two decisions, one concerns the denial of entry with identity cards into the territory of Kosovo. The second decision, the only aim of which is to expel Serbs from Kosovo, especially the north, to create a new ‘Storm’ (‘Oluja’) where their ministry would convince register under Albanian plates. If they don’t convince them, then they will steal not only their plates, but also their vehicles. After that, they don’t even know which of the Serbs will stay because they expect that all the Serbs will leave,” said Vucic.
On this occasion, journalists spoke with Igor Novakovic, a political scientist and director of research at the Center for International and Security Affairs, who told that Vucic‘s performance seemed to him to be a kind of warning that has its own domestic and foreign uses.
“One message is that Serbia would not stand aside, if something like that were to happen, and the other thing is a message to domestic public opinion that it is under certain types of pressure,” said Novakovic.
However, our interlocutor points out, that considering the Russian invasion and the general destabilization of the situation in the wider region, no one would be comfortable with any kind of conflict. He adds that Kosovo immediately tried to take advantage of the change in geopolitical relations in the world.
“We should remember the statements of Osmani and Kurti, who at the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine asked for Kosovo’s entry into NATO, and at the same time tried to label Serbia as an ally of Russia in the Balkans and someone who works against the interests of its neighbors. However, it seems that the whole that story subsided and that the authorities in Pristina realized that this was not really the case and that cheap political points would not bring them any results in the West,” said Novakovic.
He believes that, regardless of the fact that Belgrade did not introduce sanctions against Russia, the aggression was nevertheless condemned in multilateral forums and that some smaller sanctions were introduced.
“Serbia has joined some foreign policy declarations of the European Union (EU), Serbia has accepted Ukrainian refugees, and that message in the middle of the election campaign was changed to ‘peace and stability’. As it is a message to the inside that there will be no conflict, it is also a message to the outside that Serbia will not destabilize the region,” said Novakovic.
He believes that Vucic‘s performance was only a verbal warning, but nothing particularly dramatic. He points out that it will be difficult for Serbia to make a complete departure from Moscow.
In this regard, it is not easy for Belgrade to make that decision, and to begin with, the authorities would need a thorough preparation to explain to the citizens what it means in general. He notes that for eight years there has been a clear pro-Russian discourse in the country.
When asked how coordinated the policy of Vucic and the member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) Milorad Dodik is towards Russia, Novakovic said that Dodik always had an independent channel with Moscow and that it never went through Belgrade.
“That is my personal impression. He and his government directly managed these relations. I would not say that they are Moscow’s players, they simply use the situation for their own goals and to raise the stakes. It seems to me that very often in the last five or six years the rhetoric and actions of both sides were uncoordinated. I mean Belgrade and Banja Luka,” notedNovakovic.
He added that Dodik and his elite jumped out of the “matrix” there, and that Vucic then rushed in as a “firefighter” in those circumstances to ease the situation.
“There, things have changed drastically in terms of non-compliance since the beginning of Russian aggression. So, Dodik jumped out a lot more at the beginning. It seems to me that now there is still a calming of the situation. When there was this vote in the United Nations (UN) Security Council when BiHjoined that. Dodik had the opportunity to create, in principle, much greater chaos than he did. It was reduced to one open letter to the public. This shows not only consideration for Belgrade. The entire Western Balkans is in the western backyard, we are surrounded by them. Dodik knows very well where his security comes from, who it relies on and who will basically be the real loser if there is any instability and escalation. I don’t think he needs that at all,” concluded Novakovic, Klix.ba writes.
E.Dz.
