The Russian militaristic Telegram channel “Rybar“ sent a message to its millions of readers stating that the “region is being pushed into escalation” following the decision of the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on Wednesday to issue an order for the detention of Dodik, Prime Minister of Republika Srpska (RS)Radovan Viskovic, and President of the National Assembly of RS(NARS) Nenad Stevandic, who are suspected of committing the criminal offense of “attack on the constitutional order.”
“RS is facing unprecedented pressure, essentially being pushed to form its own structures and declare independence,” reads the post, which was then copied and shared across other influential channels.
A number of smaller channels began publishing similar messages almost simultaneously, referring to BiH as a “ticking time bomb” after having remained silent on developments in BiH since the beginning of the latest crisis triggered by Dodik.
The activation of pro-Russian Telegram channels is not happening by chance at the same time as the undermining of BiH’s constitutional order, believes Sead Turcalo, Dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo.
“We know this is a network that includes at least 23 influential channels with nearly half a million followers across the region. The main function of these channels is to create a separate media space in which the narrative of RS independence becomes normalized and accepted. This is not a spontaneous awakening, but a carefully designed and coordinated propaganda operation aimed at preparing the ground for political moves like those we are witnessing in RS,” says Turcalo.
Rybar’s positions almost always align with the views and goals of the Kremlin. Rybar is already attempting to exert greater influence in RS through efforts to launch a journalism school. The head of Rybar, Mikhail Zvinchuk, who has been sanctioned by European Union (EU) countries for supporting actions that undermine and threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence of Ukraine, has visited RS. Zvinchuk is connected to authorities in Moscow, and experts consider his activities a megaphone for the Kremlin’s leadership.
This channel also links the increase in EUFOR troop numbers to what it describes as “the most acute crisis in BiH in the last 30 years.”
Other smaller yet still significant channels, whose influence waspreviously reported, and which have hundreds of thousands of readers, independently publish similar content apart from Rybar.
The Telegram channel Balkanska spletnica, with its 30.000 readers, writes that “one should not believe analysts who claim nothing is happening” to avoid “being surprised later.”
“The ticking time bomb set by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement will explode sooner or later. And now it’s only a matter of time,” states a post on that Telegram channel.
Telegram is a perfect platform for spreading such messages, explains Turcalo, as it lacks strict content control and the usual fact-checking mechanisms.
“What is particularly concerning is the synchronization of anti-constitutional activities with incendiary messages about the breakup of the state, which simultaneously appear on these channels. This real-time shaping of the perception that RS independence is not only possible but almost inevitable – and the only solution – is even more dangerous as such inflammatory rhetoric is directly linked to Moscow’s official policy. Some of the key actors on Telegram channels are already known Russian propagandists, including individuals connected to Putin’s party or even former Russian officials like Sergey Baburin, who openly advocates for international recognition of RS,” says Turcalo.
“This clearly shows us that the situation is not just an internal crisis but part of a broader plan to destabilize the region. Russia has been using such media strategies for years, always with the goal of not only undermining Euro-Atlantic integration but also any stabilization of the region,” he adds.
On Thursday, Balkanska spletnica shared a text from the group “Drustveni udar,” which also announces escalation.
“The situation in BiH is on the brink of uncontrolled escalation. Sarajevo demands the arrest of RS leadership, and Banja Luka announces the adoption of a new Constitution. (…) Sarajevo may request EUFOR’s assistance in carrying out the operation (…) using the adoption of the new Constitution as a pretext. If this actually happens, BiH will find itself in the most serious military-political crisis since 1992,” reads a post analyzing the possibility that theState Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) may not be prepared for Dodik’s detention.
In our linguistic region, Telegram functions almost as a parallel reality in information dissemination, where citizens seek content that aligns with their views, making it a problematic tool for shaping public discourse in the Balkans, says analyst and digital forensic expert Natasa Kilibarda.
“This sphere precisely allows for the unrestrained spread of nationalist, pro-Russian, and Eurosceptic narratives, often fueled by information-disinformation campaigns. Various domestic and foreign actors, connected to local ruling structures, use Telegram for propaganda and mobilization of support through anti-Western and pro-Russian messages,” says Kilibarda.
Serbski Vestnik, another Russian-language Telegram channel, also published a text on Wednesday stating that “RS laws, which apply within the territory of the Serbian entity, will be enforced by Serbs.”
“This means that Dodik can only be arrested by force, through the deployment of police/special forces/military, which will be met by RS Ministry of Internal Affairs special units, including anti-terrorist and well-trained forces. The failed state of BiH is falling apart before our eyes,” the post states.
The same wording, or rather the dissemination of this content, was picked up by Dejan Beric and shared with his 110.000 followers. He is one of the most well-known Serbian volunteers in the Russian military, and his channel is the most visited pro-Russian Telegram channel in BiH, Serbia, and Montenegro.
Some channels are using the hashtag “#RSexit,” a term first used by Dodik and previously seen in the spread of disinformation and news predicting RS‘s secession from BiH.
In this context, Serbski Vestnik explains that “RS, according to Dayton, can have its own army” and that, under the proposed new Constitution of RS, this would become possible again. This is a response to the first of two special sessions of the NARS regarding the adoption of the new RS Constitution.
“Article 116 of RS states that Banja Luka will have its own army, while Article 115 states that RS can declare military neutrality or enter military alliances with other states. So, #RSexit is closer than it seems,” the post reads.
Kilibarda points out that, given the region’s long history of ethnic tensions and political instability, such messages easily find fertile ground. Thanks to Telegram’s private and decentralized nature, it has become a central platform for campaigns that exploit emotions, fear, and uncertainty to shape public opinion.
“Telegram channels are part of a networked ecosystem where individuals, anonymously or under pseudonyms, very skillfully and almost synchronously amplify the same narratives, creating an ‘echo chamber’ effect in which users constantly receive confirmation of their views,” says Kilibarda.
Other pro-Russian Telegram channels that have been focusing on the possible detention of Milorad Dodik since Wednesday have already been identified by BiH media as prone to spreading disinformation. Among them are Istocni front, Bunt je stanje duha, Istok Info, and others, Detektor writes.
