The collection of papers entitled “Demographic Changes in BiH from 2013 to 2024”, edited by Academician Mirko Pejanović and Prof. Dr. Melika Husić-Mehmedović, provides a comprehensive overview of key demographic changes in the country with guidelines for future public policies and strategies. The demographic challenges in Dnevnik 3 were discussed by Prof. Dr. Adnan Efendić, one of the promoters of the collection and a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Sarajevo.
Commenting on the data on demographic changes from the collection, Prof. Dr. Efendić said that the prominence of emigration in relation to immigration will eventually result in a decrease in the population.
“Today, data were presented showing that BiH records a negative net migration balance, which means that we have more pronounced emigration in relation to immigration of the population. Over time, this leads to a decrease in the population. Authors from various disciplines participated in writing the collection. What is important to say is that the intention to emigrate is still present in BiH. BiH records various forms of migration, such as internal migration, circular migration, seasonal migration, including returns to BiH,” he said.
In response to the question of which group of citizens is leaving the country the most, Prof. Dr. Efendić emphasized that it is the young workforce.
“This is a monitoring period of approximately one decade. We had significant emigration, especially before the corona period. The most significant periods of migration were in 2015 and 2019. When you analyze emigration anywhere in the world, the data show that younger populations are emigrating. This was also the case in BiH. The age group from 25 to 30 years of age emigrated the most. This is a very productive age group – the workforce. This leads to a reduction in the labor market, disruptions in the structure of the labor market and difficulties in the BiH economy. We have a shortage of labor supply in certain sectors,” he emphasized.
In response to the question of the accuracy of the claim that the country is facing a demographic collapse, Prof. Dr. Efendić said that we should focus on improving the conditions that will encourage the diaspora to return to their homeland.
“Emigration is a challenge for the entire region, and even beyond. In BiH, this phenomenon is most pronounced, but there is one source of these difficulties, and that is forced emigration during the war, which disrupted the size and structure of the population. We need to make progress that will make BiH attractive again for those who left it. About 10% of the population was abroad and returned, in different periods – both post-war and today,” he added.
In response to the question about the key reasons for leaving the country, Prof. Dr. Efendić said that the political instability of the country contributes most to these decisions.
“There is never just one reason for leaving. We analyze the reasons for leaving by controlling 20-30 factors that potentially affect intentions to leave the country. What is interesting when it comes to intentions to migrate from BiH is that economic factors do not have primacy. The models do not confirm that the unemployed or those with lower salaries are the ones who leave BiH the most. The aspect of political instability and institutional inefficiency is highlighted as factors that generate insecurity and significantly contribute to the departures of citizens. These factors have a stronger effect than the issue of employment,” he concluded, according to Federalna TV.
