Russia is relocating a significant amount of its military equipment in Syria, signaling preparations for a partial withdrawal, analysts from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War say.
Furthermore, satellite images reveal a buildup of military vehicles at a port and an airbase under Russian control in western Syria. Transport planes also appear to have arrived and departed the country in recent days. There are also videos showing large convoys of Russian military trucks moving north toward these bases.
The Institute for the Study of War suggests this indicates preparations for a reduction or complete withdrawal of Russian forces. The Washington-based think tank added that relocating military vehicles to their bases might be a precautionary measure as Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus.
Russia has maintained a significant military presence in Syria during Bashar al-Assad’s rule, helping him remain in power after the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Russia’s two most significant bases are the port in Tartus, established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the Hmeimim airbase, which has been operational since 2015. The Hmeimim base has been used to launch airstrikes across Syria in support of Assad’s fight against rebels.
Both bases have become critical strategic assets for Russia, providing easier access to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Mediterranean. However, Assad’s decline has raised questions about Russia’s future presence in Syria.
Moscow is seeking to negotiate with the new regime. On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there is “no final decision” and that Russia is “in contact with representatives of the forces currently controlling the situation in Syria.”
Moreover, activity at the Hmeimim airbase was monitored using Planet Labs satellite images. Signs of continued activity include the presence of significant military transport planes. Two large Antonov An-124 aircraft, which could be used to move assets out of Syria, were spotted at the base on Friday. They had left by Tuesday, but two more large planes were observed at the base again on Wednesday morning.
