If Serbia allowed Kosovo to get a seat in the United Nations, it would cease to be a country, believes Dušan Proroković from the Institute for International Politics and Economy in Belgrade and points out that such an example does not exist among countries and that it is simply not done.
In FoNet’s Kosinus interview series on solving the Kosovo problem, he reminded that no country has acted like this in international relations since the end of the Second World War and that he does not see why Serbia should be the first.
Proroković assessed that the agreement between Belgrade and Pristina represented an attempt to relativize the conflict potential and to create a framework for functioning according to the slogan “we agree that we disagree on some things”.
As he interpreted, the agreement is an opportunity for all three parties to buy time, for Serbia to wait for a change in the balance of power in international relations, for the Albanians to weaken Serbia’s potential, and for the European Union to design a new strategy presented in 2023.
He pointed out that the agreement turned into gradual and occasional concessions that Belgrade gave to Pristina, buying time and believing that it could last a little longer.
In his opinion, there is no way to negotiate in the current format of the dialogue, because from 2023 the content and essence of the potential agreement have changed.
He emphasized that Western negotiators demand that Belgrade first factually and then formally recognize Kosovo’s independence.
Proroković added that this too can turn into buying time and relativizing pressure, but that it absolutely cannot contribute to creating a comprehensive agreement.
“New negotiations will be possible when we have new mediators, because as long as the EU and the United States of America are the exclusive mediators, there will be no agreement,” predicted Proroković.
He presented that frozen conflicts are a “natural phenomenon in international relations” and that they can be resolved by military means or negotiations, and with mediation from the side in order to turn what is frozen into a strategic agreement.
He added that what is happening in the Balkans, not only in relation to Kosovo, but also in relation to other issues that can be seen as frozen conflicts, is not an exception in international relations.
Proroković believes that the EU is a country in a major crisis, that Serbia will never become a member of the EU, and that, therefore, there is no EU or Kosovo dilemma for Serbia.
“It is difficult to assume whether the EU will survive at all, and in the current format and existing structure it will not exist in a few years, because processes related to security in Europe are changing the content and structure of the EU,” said Proroković.
He added that Serbia should first see what the EU will look like and whether it will exist, and then decide on the continuation of its path.
Proroković assessed that the Union of Serbian Municipalities is a “dead project”, because it was supposed to serve its purpose when the first Brussels Agreement was signed, but that the circumstances in Serbia, Kosovo and in the relations between Belgrade and Pristina have changed.
“Today the ZSO does not mean the same as it did a decade ago, today it would represent fragments of what it should have been, and those fragments are absolutely not enough to protect the national and state interests of Serbia and the Serbs in Kosovo”, explained Proroković.
Asked whether a referendum should be organized on the Kosovo problem, he noted that the referendum is being organized on the Constitution, not on a partial problem.
“If someone has the ambition to recognize Kosovo and allow it to join the UN, they must first change the Constitution, which is why a referendum must be organized,” said Proroković.
“In order for the conflict to flare up, a trigger is needed, and I don’t see that that trigger can be in Serbia, because it is not in its interest,” explained Proroković.
“I don’t even see that this trigger exists among the Albanians, given the depopulation and a whole series of negative trends in Kosovo, so they don’t need that conflict either,” he added, but warned that there are always “external actors who can play on conflict”.
“If someone wants to prevent the strengthening of Russian or upcoming Chinese influence in the region, it should not be ruled out that certain Western actors try to intensify the processes that will cause conflicts”, concluded Prorokovic, N1 reports.
