A Soviet-era spacecraft, originally intended to land on Venus in the 1970s, is expected to soon crash uncontrollably back to Earth.
It is still too early to know where this half-ton metal mass might fall or how much of it could survive reentry into the atmosphere, according to experts monitoring space debris.
Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek predicts that the failed spacecraft will reenter the atmosphere around May 10th. He estimates that, if it remains intact, it could strike at a speed of about 150 miles per hour (242 km/h).
“Although there is a risk, we shouldn’t be too worried,” Langbroek said in a statement via email.
The object is relatively small and, even if it doesn’t break apart, “the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, which happens several times a year. You’re more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime,” he added.
Although small, the chance that the spacecraft could hit someone or something cannot be completely ruled out.
The Soviet Union launched the spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 in 1972 as part of a series of missions to Venus. However, due to a rocket malfunction, it never left Earth’s orbit.
Most of its parts fell to Earth within ten years. But Langbroek and other experts believe that the landing capsule – a spherical object about one meter in diameter – has been orbiting Earth in a very elliptical orbit for the past 53 years, gradually losing altitude.
It is very likely that this nearly 500 kg spacecraft will survive atmospheric reentry. Namely, it was built to withstand descent through Venus’s carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere, says Langbroek from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
Experts doubt that the parachute system could still function after so many years, and the heat shield is likely compromised due to prolonged time in orbit.
It would be better if the heat shield failed, which would cause the spacecraft to burn up while passing through the atmosphere, said Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. But if the shield remains intact, “the spacecraft will enter the atmosphere as a whole and we’ll get half a ton of metal falling from the sky.”
The spacecraft could enter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude – meaning from London and Edmonton (Canada) nearly down to Cape Horn in South America. Still, since most of Earth’s surface is covered by water, “there’s a good chance it will end up in some ocean,” Langbroek said.
For reference, a Chinese carrier rocket in 2022 also returned to Earth uncontrollably, and in 2018 the Tiangong-1 space station entered the atmosphere above the South Pacific also without control.
