Yesterday marked two years since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A military analyst, Professor Berko Zecevic, talked in an interview about the war that has already changed the world at this stage, its consequences for the future, as well as the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) within the new world order.
The war in Ukraine has led to a global reassessment of power in the world, the security system that has been built for years has been undermined, as well as agreements on the control of the development and possession of strategic missiles with atomic warheads, says Zecevic.
Stalemate
“This has created a new situation where you no longer have any documents that generate the behavior of large states, and accordingly, smaller ones, in the event of incidents of greater significance. In practice, now anyone can do whatever they want, considering the stalemate in which the United Nations (UN) Security Council finds itself because Russia can always veto. We are in a situation where Russia is in control,” Zecevic adds.
At the same time, Russia’s attack on Ukraine has shown that NATO and developed European countries, lulled by agreements between NATO and Russia, have neglected the development of their own weapons and capabilities for rapid action over the past 30 years. On the other hand, Zecevic adds, China is intensively arming itself, and modernizing its weapons, and “regional players” like Iran have made significant progress. Due to the dispute with China over parts of the Himalayas, where there are sources of drinking water for its needs, India is also trying to arm itself.
“We have intense cooperation between the United States (U.S.), Australia, and the United Kingdom (UK) in developing submarines with great capabilities and creating some new alliance in the Pacific Ocean region. There is also a latent conflict between China and Taiwan, intensified in recent months by provocations from China. They are not military, but they are military-political in terms of psychological pressure on Taiwan. Globally, Western countries have become aware that the era of apparent peace is over and that a new, more complex era of cold wars is emerging in several regions of the world,” Zecevic emphasizes.
Numerous Hotspots
The world is not heading towards a cataclysm but towards establishing a new social order and new spheres of influence, creating three superpowers – the U.S., China, and Russia, as well as several regional ones. However, unlike most analysts who focus on Taiwan as the next war hotspot, Zecevic draws attention to other parts of the world.
“Regional powers can create crisis hotspots at some point, especially in the areas of southern Russia, where there is a large number of countries that emerged from the former USSR, but also a certain number of republics within Russia that have unresolved relations. You have ambitions of Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the constant conflict between Pakistan and India, India and China… In the coming decades, in my opinion, new relations between major and regional powers will be established, but everyone is aware of the danger, as we can see best in the cautious conflict between Iran and Israel due to what is happening in Gaza,” explains Zecevic.
Don’t live in delusion
Although surrounded by member countries, Zecevic believes that it is a delusion to talk about our country’s NATO membership, which many see as a long-term guarantee of peace and security. He adds that in complex internal relations, our own Armed Forces should be strengthened.
“We clearly see that the political establishment in the Republika Srpska (RS) would most like the Armed Forces of BiH (AFBiH) not to exist. However, the U.S. and a number of European countries have understood the game that Mr. Dodik is playing and, in accordance with the assessment of the crisis situation that could arise here due to his actions, are making significant efforts in terms of modernizing the AFBiH. We have not adopted a new Reform Plan, which was supposed to be adopted by the Council of Ministers, because even the commission did not prepare it. Regardless, there are clear military agreements between the U.S. and the UK, and we see a more active role of Germany, partly influenced by the Netherlands, so in the coming period, we can expect further training of officers and soldiers, and there will be more military exercises between NATO forces and the AFBiH, regardless of the opposition of the RS structures. The goal is for BiH to have highly professionally trained military forces,” Zecevic emphasizes.
Follow the trends
He appeals for the AFBiH to be trained and equipped in accordance with new trends.
“You see what is happening, the strategy has changed. All officers trained 10 or 20 years ago are no longer able to meet the demands of the new battlefield that has emerged in Azerbaijan, especially profiled in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. What I would say for the Federation of BiH (FBiH) is that defense technologies and the military industry of BiH should be further strengthened because it can be a guarantee in any future situation. I used to say 10, but now I say that for at least the next 20 years, there will be demand for them in the international market. We must strengthen Civil Protection at all levels maximally involve our universities and motivate private companies to engage in the development of drones for various purposes. They need to be focused on peacetime conditions at the moment, but in the event of a crisis, they can quickly be profiled for other purposes,” military analyst Berko Zecevic concluded, Avaz writes.
E.Dz.
