The European Union is used to crises, but the next one could be its biggest yet.
As the 27 leaders of its member states gather in Brussels on Thursday, they are all aware that the security order built after 1945, which relies on the United States, could collapse completely at any moment, writes Politico.
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, European leaders have been talking about the need for Europe to take charge of its own security and defense. But while everyone acknowledges that it is high time to turn words into action, some already fear that everything could go wrong.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a “dramatic awakening,” and future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that Europe is “five minutes to midnight.” But behind closed doors, there is growing anxiety that events are moving faster than Europe can keep up.
–Fear is not just about the US-
“The worst-case scenario is that the US soon makes a deal that accepts most of Russia’s demands and tells Ukraine and Europe to put up with it or get nothing,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director of the Royal Institute of Defence Studies in London.
But the fear is not just about the US. Some European diplomats are also afraid of some of their colleagues. Namely, there is serious concern that Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, could rally a pro-Russian bloc and completely undermine the EU’s attempts to find a common response.
There are so many issues on the table and so little unity that the summit could easily go in the wrong direction. The leaders will discuss how to urgently redirect money to strengthen their militaries, but at the same time they must show that they stand by Ukraine. They are expected to confirm its European perspective, but also announce new sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s regime.
-“We will pay until Trump dies”–
“Europe is facing a serious and imminent threat that none of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a letter to leaders. “The future of a free and sovereign Ukraine, but also of a secure and prosperous Europe, is now at stake,” she said.
More than three years have passed since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Trump is only six weeks into his new term. But he has already managed to cause upheaval in Brussels. After Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tried to mend relations with Trump last week, a series of shocks followed – first the collapse of a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Friday, and then Trump cut off US military aid to Ukraine on Tuesday.
While defense funding has not been a classic EU topic until now, leaders will now discuss what the Union can do at the level of all member states.
“Defense costs have become a constant expense. We turned off the sun and now we are condemned to pay for heating every day… We have to pay for ammunition every day, at least for a few years, until Trump dies,” said one European diplomat.
–Von der Leyen wants another 800 billion euros for defense–
One of the first topics of the summit will be Ursula von der Leyen’s plan, announced on Tuesday, which could provide the EU with up to 800 billion euros for defense in the coming years.
The most concrete part of the plan envisages the EU taking out a 150 billion euro loan that it would then lend to member states to buy common equipment – from air and missile defense to artillery systems, missiles, drones and other weapons.
The European Commission is also proposing to relax rules on state finances so that countries can increase their military spending. According to von der Leyen’s estimates, if each country increased its military budget by 1.5 percent of GDP over four years, the entire Union would raise about 650 billion euros.
–New proposals to strike Russia–
All this, European officials say, is just the beginning. But the question is whether the EU’s complex bureaucracy can actually implement it.
“Von der Leyen is trying to take matters into her own hands, but the question is whether the system will follow suit,” said a French minister.
The issue of frozen Russian assets will also be on the table. So far, only the interest on about 200 billion euros worth of Russian assets has been used, but more and more countries, including France, are increasingly speaking out that the principal should also be reached. Opponents warn that this could cause legal problems and financial turmoil.
–Orban blocks aid to Ukraine again–
The summit’s final statement was expected to include a plan by European Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas to send at least 1.5 million artillery shells to Ukraine this year, as well as additional equipment such as anti-aircraft systems, missiles and drones.
However, according to the latest draft of the statement seen by Politico, a solution is being sought to continue the deliveries – because Hungary, officials say, is currently blocking everything.
The text of the draft also states that the EU “will continue to provide Ukraine with regular and predictable financial support”.
For this year, 30.6 billion euros of aid to Ukraine is planned – 12.5 billion through the mechanism called Ukraine Facility and about 18 billion from G7 loans within the so-called. “The Era of Initiative”. In the future, money should also come through the Rearm Europe plan, which von der Leyen announced on Tuesday.
-“Very painful, but not fatal”-
While European leaders are looking for solutions, Kiev is saying that Trump’s decision to end military aid hurts them, but that it will not break Ukraine.
“Very painful, but not fatal,” one senior Ukrainian official told Politico. “It will cost us unnecessary casualties and lost territory, but it will not lead to defeat.”
