Who will join forces to secure the seats of power for the next four years? The political puzzle-building has already begun in the first week following the general elections. Long-standing partners – the leaders of the SDA, HDZ BiH, and subsequently the SNSD – are set to sit at the negotiating table as early as next week. Conditions have already been outlined. However, before that happens, they must find a partner to secure a stable majority in the House of Representatives of BiH.
First meeting of the leaders
The citizens have made their choice, and the political puzzle is taking shape. Election results dictate the possible coalitions. The first option points toward established partners – and quickly, too, as phones have already been ringing and contacts established. Things will become more concrete next week. The leaders of the SDA and HDZ BiH will meet first, followed by the leader of the SNSD.
“We will have to seek out partnerships there as well,” says Dragan Čović, President of HDZ BiH.
The conditions are ready – and ambitious. Everything is being put on the table right from the start, ranging from the most complex legislation to radical demands.
“Our European path will be a priority for any partner with whom we form a government; we certainly won’t rush into things blindly. And, of course, we must resolve the issue of the Election Law right at the outset,” adds Čović.
“We want to return the army to the RS, return the Border Police, and reclaim everything that was once seized by High Representatives or voted for by some of our MPs under duress – actions taken under pressure, not in a democratic atmosphere. We want control over indirect taxation, and we want the Intelligence Service in our hands,” states Milorad Dodik, President of the SNSD. “We have already defined directions, and we will not give up on that when it comes to NATO, the EU,” emphasizes SDA President Bakir Izetbegović.
In addition to the above, there are increasingly loud speculations that Dodik will ask his partner for a guaranteed pardon in the BiH Presidency, which would officially return him to the political scene. Apart from the noticeably difficult conditions, this potential coalition lacks three mandates for a majority in the BiH House of Representatives. SDP with five representatives can be a safe partner for a stable majority. Earlier, they clearly said NO to the coalition with the SDA, and in their latest statement they state that the next steps will depend on the views and conclusions of the party’s organs.
Two options on the table
“Then – then. What I want to say is that the SDP, as it has been working and positioning itself until now, will continue,” said the president of the SDP, Nermin Nikšić.
In the multitude of possible calculations and collaborations that are still hidden, only a few stand out. This does not exclude the possibility of a wider coalition with the SBiH and possibly the DF. The Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina has already expressed certain positions.
“We spent the entire campaign essentially criticizing what the government has done in the past four years, and it would be unnatural for us to suddenly enter into some kind of conversation with them,” says Semir Efendić, president of the SBiH.
According to those who have been following the political situation for a long time – there are two options on the table. The old coalition of SDA, HDZ BiH and SNSD with the help of smaller parties or a new one with SDP?
“This, conditionally speaking, national coalition is more certain for one simple reason, that is the fact that Mr. Čović previously said that his preferred partner is the SDA. Besides, they have been natural allies since 1990,” according to journalist Ranko Mavrak.
Who will with whom? The coalition, whatever it was, is on a long stick because the combinations have only just begun. Until the final puzzle, the government divides the period of negotiation, but also of trading, because not everyone can get everything.
