The latest, fierce statements and threats of the President of the Republika Srpska (RS), Milorad Dodik, are still without a concrete reaction. The coalition partners from the Federation say that the line was crossed this time, but they are not giving up on the coalition yet. At the same time, the international community is silent on Dodik’s new provocations after the High Representative used the Bonn powers – it is not reacting. Therefore, the public of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is asking questions – what happens after the decisions of the High Representative and is there a solution without the international community?
The suspension of the laws by which the Republika Srpska (RS) violates the Constitution and prevents the implementation of the decisions of the High Representative did not extinguish the leading policy and ideology of that entity. The goals of Milorad Dodik and the National Assembly of the RS (NARS) remain the same. After the decisions of Christian Schmidt, Dodik’s intentions became even more aggressive, and there are many threats. The prohibition of activities of the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) and the Prosecutor’s Office of BiH on the territory of the RS, a lawsuit against Schmidt, and a referendum. The international community is not reacting to all of the above, and the BiH public is waiting for a concrete outcome of this crisis. There are calculations on both sides.
“They understood that this is very dangerous, that it is a strategic game that only changes the means, but not the goal. How did all those who rushed and were involved in politics out of spite, and behaved in a way against the whole world and against everyone,throughout history, end up, such as – Caligula, Hitler, Milosevic, Karadzic, Mladic – history has given the answer to how all those who behave in their way will end up,” says sociologist Esad Bajtal.
“We saw that in principle these are shots in the dark – that is, that there is no concrete realization. Representatives of the international community thought carefully that some might achieve a counter-effect with more drastic sanctions or a more drastic approach, in order to create an unwanted situation where Milorad Dodik is made a victim,” says communication expert Mladen Bubonjic.
At the same time, the coalition partners from the Federation – leaders of the Coalition of the Three and HDZ BiH – condemn Dodik’s dangerous statements, but still call for an agreement. And Dodik, as he himself admits, is up against a wall. There is no way out, so the only defense for him now is only an offensive. In this offensive, he is accompanied by a financial crisis to which he cannot adequately respond. Thus, while he is dismantling state institutions and planning the establishment of entity institutions, he cannot maintain the existing ones either. Excise tax money would be a saving grace for Dodik, but without the consent of the coalition partners, he will not get the money. This further means that the crisis could be solved on the home ground as well.
“It’s all a game to which extent the one, the other, or the third will be ready for anything. Again, perhaps the strongest argument of the opponents of Milorad Dodik and the authorities in the RS is exactly the finances, but then the question is to what extent will the public in the RS itself be provoked since they will most likely not see it as an attack on Milorad Dodik, but as an attack on themselves,” adds Bubonjic.
“He behaves like a rat from a social psychology experiment. They put a rat and a huge dog in a small room and the rat has no chance. And you know what happens? Instead of running into a corner, he attacks because the corner is no way out,” notes Bajtal.
It is questionable when Dodik will lose the support of the citizens and how long they will wait while they are facing an increasing financial crisis. And yesterday the RS borrowed another 75 million BAM.
E.Dz
