The economic consequences of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East are already visible. The price of oil on the world market is ten percent higher and it is certain that the buying trend will continue. And movements on the world market are quickly reflected on ours, so more expensive fuel is certain already in the coming days.
Crowds at the gas stations. Tanks and canisters for supplies are being filled because there is a new blow to the financial statement. Fuel is already more expensive by several fennings, and in the coming days it will be even more specific, because the figures on the world stock markets are going wild, and the reflection on Bosnia and Herzegovina is inevitable.
We will only know tomorrow what the stock exchange in New York and Hamburg did in terms of increasing the price of crude oil”, says economic analyst Zoran Pavlović.
Analyzes and forecasts are quite negative. But there are signs of a solution. For oil to be available at more acceptable prices.
“It is encouraging in such a war situation that the OPEC countries have already reached an agreement to increase production, which means that there will be no shortage of oil on the market, then there will be significant price increases,” explained Mirsad Jašarspahić, president of the FBiH Chamber of Commerce.
On the other hand, every crisis is also an opportunity. This one, specifically for profit, because the fuel that is currently being poured from stocks, was bought at lower prices, before the disruption in the market.
“Our companies that dispose of oil use this as an opportunity. They have enough reserves that they acquired at the old price to be able to offer at the old price, but they use it as an opportunity to earn additional profit,” said Aziz Šunje, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Sarajevo.
“The first quantity that arrives at the new price is something that is the beginning and the right of wholesale and retail distributors to increase fuel prices. This is the practical use of the situation, the psychosis, the psychology of the customer who says “oh, one war in the Strait of Hormuz, the fuel can’t get through, I have to pay more, and in fact wholesalers and retailers earn extra profit at the expense of that situation,” said Pavlović.
While some supply and others profit, the order of price increases is known. First oil, and then everything else.
“So it is possible that there may be an increase in the prices of services in the transport segment. If you have an increase in the prices of these services, then the final price of the producer due to the increase in transport prices will surely be higher again, especially in the segment of agriculture and food production”, added Jašarspahić.
Little by little, inflation is back in the open. A challenge for the whole world, even more so for smaller and fragile economies like Bosnia and Herzegovina.
