Will the Balkans be a priority for the United States (U.S.) administration under Donald Trump? What if the main person in charge of Balkan affairs is Richard Grenell, the former U.S. ambassador to Germany and special envoy for the Western Balkans, known for positions closely aligned with Belgrade and Aleksandar Vucic? Adi Cerimagic, an analyst of the European Stability Initiative (ESI), provides some insights.
Cerimagic notes that Trump’s second term is unlikely to resemble his first, as he now has the experience of his initial term, has spent the past four years building a network of supporters who align with his vision for the U.S. and has secured a decisive victory in these elections.
“He now has a clear path to appoint people who are close to him and share his ideas. We can expect to see a Trump administration that is much more proactive and assertive in pushing its agenda. When it comes to the Balkans, we don’t expect it to be a top priority, but Richard Grenell has maintained close connections with certain actors and has been very active over the past four years. From his statements on social media and in the media, it’s clear he has said that, even if the Balkans aren’t Trump’s personal priority, if he holds an influential position, he will likely play a more active role in the region,” Cerimagic stated.
Personal relationships will play a crucial role in the new administration’s policy, and Grenell has already established such connections.
“For them, personal ties mean a lot, and in the region, those connections have primarily been with Belgrade and Tirana. Some of Grenell’s statements make it clear that he has taken positions closer to Belgrade and President Vucic. When the State Department announced that Serbia was amassing troops on the border with Kosovo, he was one of the first to dismiss it as lies, though he later recognized it was true. The success of his policy ideas will not only depend on Trump’s administration but also on the regional situation and how the European Union (EU) and its key members respond to the new challenge,” Cerimagic said.
He pointed out that if Grenell takes the lead in Balkan affairs, we can expect cooperation with Belgrade, Banja Luka, and Podgorica, as well as Skopje, whose new government has already established contact with him, while pressure may be applied to those “on the other side.”
“We saw this in Trump’s first term with the Serbia-Kosovo relationship, where there was significant pressure on Pristina and Kosovo’s then-leadership. I think similar expectations could extend to the rest of the region, with Belgrade potentially working with these cities to seek support from the U.S. administration, as laid out in the June All-Serb Declaration, which clearly outlines aspirations for the region,” he explained.
Cerimagic noted that Trump’s supporters have been meticulously preparing for the start of this term over the past year, with their first goal being a wave of appointments. Over 7.000 positions need to be filled in the first 180 days.
“How this will all unfold is speculation, but what we know from Trump’s first term about Grenell’s work is that he was pragmatic. He was indeed favorable toward Belgrade but practical in his efforts to secure success for Trump’s administration. At one point, he publicly opposed the idea of border changes, but from what we know of behind-the-scenes discussions, this was a tactical adjustment by the Trump administration, aiming to secure economic deals. We’ll likely see a great deal of pragmatism and involvement from ambassadors who were crucial under Biden as well, but they too were operating within a framework set in Washington. We must remember that the Balkans is neither the center of the world nor of U.S. policy, not even of current foreign policy. There are so many pressing issues on which the Trump administration will likely clash with the EU and the rest of the world, raising questions about how much focus will actually be on the region,” Cerimagic concluded.
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