Milorad Dodik, on his way to the US, tells Bosniaks they are waiting in vain for the end of Trump’s mandate. Meanwhile, Orbán and Vučić have left power, Fico is barely holding on, and America is electing a Congress today that could tie Trump’s hands.
SNSD leader Milorad Dodik, in a telephone statement to the Srna News Agency, said he expects that his trip to America will be “the best possible” for Republika Srpska. He will attend the gathering at Trump’s Club Mar-a-Lago in Florida, where, as he said, he will meet with American congressmen, politicians, and businessmen close to the MAGA movement.
He also sent a message to Bosniaks. He said they are frustrated because they are not here and that they should deal with their problems.
“They are not where I am going, they are not in Mar-a-Lago, they are not in Miami, nor will they be. There will be some more snide comments and nothing else,” Dodik said.
However, the most important part of the statement is not the boastful invitation, but a single sentence which sounds like a confession. Dodik said that “Muslims who later became Bosniaks” must understand that the international context has changed and that they are waiting in vain for the end of Trump’s mandate. He then added: But by then, many things will be finished.”
In other words, Dodik is also counting down a deadline. Trump’s mandate will last until January 2029; he can’t get a third, so Dodik is rushing to “finish” what he is planning by then. The problem is, while he is talking about the changed context, the context is actually changing right before his eyes, just not in the direction he would prefer.
Allies in Europe Are Falling One After Another
Viktor Orban was the first to go. The Hungarian Prime Minister, Dodik’s long-standing anchor in the European Union, lost parliamentary elections on April 12, after 16 years in power. Tis Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party won a two-thirds majority in parliament.
Aleksandar Vučić fell as well. At the end of September, he resigned as the President of Serbia to run as the list leader in snap parliamentary elections, and was defeated on October 25. According to the final projections of the CeSID and Ipsos, the Student List won 52.9 votes and 140 mandates, and “Aleksandar Vučić- United Serbia” list won 38.8 percent and 103 mandates. Vučić conceded defeat on election night itself.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is still holding on, but he is standing on thin ice. Following the dismissal in late September of Minister Tomas Taraba from the coalition Slovak National Party, Fico’s government lost its secure majority in parliament, and the surveys show that the ruling parties could lose power in the elections regularly scheduled for next year.
America Chooses Congress Today
Dodik’s trip to Mar-a-Lago aligns with the U.S. congressional elections taking place today. All 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators are being elected, and forecasts do not favor Trump.
Decision Desk HQ’s model gives Democrats an 84 percent chance of winning the House of Representatives and 65 percent for the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin final forecast assesses that the democratic majority in the House is nearly certain, but the surveys also point to a Democratic victory in the Senate. The first results are expected on Wednesday night local time.
If the forecasts turn out to be true, Trump would spend the next two years working with the Congress that could block his laws and budget, as well as launching investigations into his administration. And in January 2029, he leaves the White House anyway.
The Window Is Closing
Since Trump’s return, Dodik got what he chased for years: in October 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury lifted sanctions against him, his family and dozens of associates. But there are not many concrete changes in BiH that he could ascribe to the “new international context,” except invitations to gatherings like the one in Florida.
That is why his message to Bosniaks to “prepare for a definitive conversation” with Croats and Serbs feels like an attempt to catch the last train rather than a position of strength. Allies are leaving, time is running out, and the moment he has is slowly passing.
Dodik is not applying pressure only through messages from America. Yesterday, after the session of the SNSD Presidency in Banja Luka, he said that his party will not enter the Council of Ministers of BiH until the Constitutional Court is reformed, i.e., until foreign judges leave it.
Such a condition looks more like opening negotiations with the highest possible price tag than an actual plan. Changing the composition of the court requires constitutional amendments, and similar proposals by SNSD have never gained support in the past. An initial maximum demand typically serves to extract concessions on other issues later when it is abandoned. The only trouble is that such a game requires time, and time is precisely what Dodik is running out of.
