The fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8th, 2024, has opened a new chapter in the Syrian crisis, with far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics and energy strategy. Turkey was the first to react, sending high-ranking officials, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin, to initiate negotiations with the new authorities in Damascus. The primary goal: an agreement on the delimitation of maritime zones in the Mediterranean Sea.
Turkey’s interests in Syria and the Mediterranean
The announcement of negotiations on maritime jurisdiction caused a stir in Athens and Nicosia. Greek authorities, haunted by the 2019 Turkey-Libya agreement that ignored Crete’s existence, fear a similar scenario with Syria. Cypriot officials have warned that any agreement must respect international maritime law, which remains doubtful since Turkey has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Turkey’s strategy is no surprise. Ankara has long sought to expand its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, targeting energy resources and maritime routes. An agreement with Syria would mark another step toward its longstanding plan to become a key energy hub for Europe.
Europe in search of stability
The European Union (EU) finds itself at the center of this geopolitical game. On one hand, the bloc is seeking alternatives to Russian gas, with the Eastern Mediterranean playing a vital role in its energy strategy. On the other hand, European countries remain divided in their approach toward Turkey.
Greece and Israel recently signed an agreement on electrical interconnection, including the world’s longest underwater high-voltage cable connecting Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. However, the project faces challenges on the section towards Cyprus, while Turkey simultaneously works to establish its own energy infrastructure in collaboration with Syria and other countries.
Geopolitical risks and security concerns
Turkey’s ambitions extend beyond energy. Its presence in Syria raises questions about the future status of Kurdish regions, opposed by Israel and several Arab countries. Additionally, Turkey has not concealed its desire to regain influence in parts of the Eastern Mediterranean where the interests of Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt overlap.
The delineation of maritime zones between Turkey and Syria could redefine regional relations but also spark new conflicts. While Ankara seeks allies and seizes every opportunity to strengthen its position, Athens and Nicosia fear losing sovereign rights.
Europe remains vulnerable and divided, facing an uncertain future for energy projects and geopolitical alliances. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean is becoming a critical battleground for control of resources and strategic routes, where the interests of Turkey, Syria, Greece, and other regional players are set to clash in the coming months and years.
