A journalist and analyst in The Guardian Jon Henley made an analysis in which he foresees the events that might occur in Europe in 2017. Year 2016 was difficult, marked with terrorist attacks in Brussels, Nice and Berlin, as well as with a lot of turmoil on the political scene.
According to Henley, 2017 might be similar. He foresees two scenarios – an optimistic one and a pessimistic one.
In the worst case scenario, another major terrorist attack will occur early next year on the continent where terrorism took more than 130 lives this year.
This scenario would work well for Geert Wilders, a Dutch rightist who will be in the March elections and, according to this scenario, he will win those elections.
Only a month later, prior to the presidential elections in France, the authoritarian Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will lose patience and open Turkish borders towards the EU, thus enabling hundreds of thousands of refugees and immigrants to go towards the EU member countries.
This unfolding of the situation will force the European Union to freeze negotiations with Turkey and there will also be no agreement on visa-free traveling with Turkey.
In the presidential elections in France, the candidate of the populist, radically right and anti-immigrant Fronte Nationale Marine Le Pen will win.
The populist Movement Five Stars, headed by the former comedian Beppe Grillo, will win the elections in Italy.
In France and the Netherlands, Wilders and Le Pen will launch referendums for exit from the EU, and Italy will discard euro as currency.
However, Henley stated that none of this has to happen.
In the most optimistic scenario, the European intelligence services will prevent a major attack, and Erdogan will realize that it is in his interest to sustain from pushing Europe into a new major crisis. .
After the unexpected victory of Alexander Van der Bellen over the rightist Hofer, voters in Europe will not turn to populist parties, therefore the populism in Europe will reach its peak.
Gert Wilders will thus lose the elections and Fillon will win against Marine Le Pen after slackening his liberal proposals.
Germans will re-elect the Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the new electoral system in Italy will prevent the victory of the comedian Beppe Grillo.
“A lot depends on ‘what if’, ‘maybe’, ‘but’, and ‘could be’. Anguish, resentment, and desire for change are getting louder across Europe. It would be a miracle if such situation does not lead to at least another victory of anti-establishment movements in the next year,” said Henley.
(Source: faktor.ba)
