With the dynamics we have in the preparations for the census, it is questionable whether we will have a new inventory after the ten-year cycle in 2023. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has long since lost the pace of the regular census, so it was not expected that it would fit into that process in 2021 when the countries of the European Union (EU) and the regions conducted the censuses.
The census conducted by neighboring Croatia at the end of last year showed that this country has almost 10% or 400.000 fewer inhabitants. Last year, the population of North Macedonia, which lost 190.000 of its citizens, was also listed. Serbia and Montenegro postponed the census for this year due to the epidemiological situation. BiH does not have a date yet, and judging by the current dynamics, it is not expected to complete the ten-year cycle next year.
Regarding the date of the new census, the BiH Agency for Statistics will act in line with Article 8 of the Law on Statistics of BiH, which states: “When deemed necessary by the state authorities, the Agency will coordinate the planning, conduct, and publication of the results of the BiH population and household census, in line with the General Framework Agreement for Peace in BiH, including Annexes 7 and 10 of the Agreement.”
A new Census Law has not yet been adopted. It was only at the end of 2019 that the Council of Ministers gave an order to the State Agency to initiate activities on drafting the law. According to the Agency for Statistics, they are currently working on the coordination of the new legal solution, which was submitted to the entity institutes for an opinion after its drafting.
Ognjen Igljic, spokesman for the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska (RS) told: “The position of the Institute is generally that the new census, as well as the Law, is done according to the mentioned EU legislation and international recommendations, but also with respect and appreciation of the constitutional competencies and arrangements of RS and BiH so as not to repeat the negativity that accompanied the 2013 census.”
Without three years of intensive preparation, it is not possible to organize such a complex survey, said demographers, and reminded of the saying of census statistics which says that preparations for the next census begin immediately after the end of the previous one. It is clear that this is not the case in BiH, mostly because, as previous experience has shown, politics has become involved in statistics. In 2013, there was no political agreement on the methodology, specifically the manner of publishing the results.
Aleksandar Cavic, a demographer explained: “The problem of publishing and issuing the results of the census created a significant element that influenced the fact that we want a prepared census, we certainly did not have it in 2021. But it seems to me that I do not see any indication that it will happen in the near future. We need a census and I believe that the census cannot be based on anyone’s political will, a projection of some of the desired results that will be determined by the census. “
Amer Osmic, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Sarajevo said: “It would show that the forecasts of some international organizations have unfortunately proved to be true, that BiH belongs to the group of countries that are rapidly losing the most valuable potential of a society, and that is the population due to natural increase and mechanical movements of the population, more specifically migration, and a significantly higher number of departures than those arrived in BiH.”
E.Dz.
Source: BHRT
