According to media reports, the United States (U.S.) is once again considering the withdrawal of its troops from Germany.
However, if that happens, it won’t be overnight, some sources state. Besides, the U.S. is still investing billions in its bases in Germany.
According to data from the U.S., around 37.000 U.S. soldiers are currently stationed in Germany at several dozen bases. Most of them are at the Ramstein base and the surrounding area in the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate. It is the largest U.S. military community outside the U.S. In addition, around 12.000 German civilians work for the U.S. military across Germany, also mostly in Rhineland-Palatinate.
Trump threatened in 2020 as well
Since Donald Trump became U.S. president again, there are fears that he could reduce the number of troops in Germany. During his first term, Trump in 2020 threatened a partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany. His reasoning was that Germany does not allocate enough funds for NATO. “We will reduce the number of troops in Germany to 25.000,” Trump said at the time. However, the administration of Joe Biden later scrapped those plans.m, DW writes.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance took a harsher tone toward NATO allies and Germany during the Munich Security Conference: he criticized the alleged restriction of freedom of speech in Germany and linked it to the U.S. military presence in the country: “The entire German defense is financed by U.S. taxpayers.”
And Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated in early February, during a visit to U.S. troops in Stuttgart, that the new U.S.administration does not currently plan a mass withdrawal of troops from Europe. However, at the same time, he emphasized that the global deployment of U.S. forces will be re-evaluated.
These rumors were further fueled by some media outlets, which recently reported on an alleged mass relocation of U.S. troops from Germany to Hungary. These claims have not yet been confirmed.
Security implications and nuclear deterrence
Military expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich believes that the departure of U.S. forces from Germany would represent a “catastrophic signal in terms of security policy,” especially toward countries like Russia, because it would show that the U.S. no longer fully guarantees conventional military support to all European allies.
However, Masala believes that it is “not very likely” that there will be a major relocation of U.S. units, at least not quickly and in the short term.
It is possible, says Masala, that there will be a “gradual withdrawal of units or their redistribution within Europe.”
He adds that under Trump, the U.S. no longer sees itself as the “primary guarantor of Europe’s security”: “We won’t be able to prevent the U.S. from largely withdrawing conventionally from Europe.”
U.S. nuclear deterrence and the presence of conventional troops in Europe are considered key for the defense of European NATO allies.
It is estimated that around 20 tactical U.S. nuclear warheads are stationed at the Buchel military base. There is no official confirmation.
Germany, which does not have its own nuclear weapons, could use them in a crisis situation, but only with the approval of the U.S.president. Recent political developments in the U.S. have raised doubts as to whether Trump would even be willing to approve such nuclear participation.
Still, Masala for now sees “no indication from the U.S. that the nuclear umbrella is being questioned.”
He does, however, believe that Europe should prepare for such a scenario. It makes sense, says Masala, “to supplement the U.S.nuclear shield with the French one,” because it is unlikely that the U.S. in the future will be willing “to risk the destruction of New York for, say, the liberation of Estonia.”
Impact on German workers and continued U.S. investments
Many Germans, civilian employees of the U.S. military, are currently worried, which is confirmed by Susanne Schafer from the Verdi union in Kaiserslautern.
And military expert Masala says: “The presence of U.S. troops is, of course, an economic factor in the places where they are deployed.”
Two weeks ago in this city, public sector employees took part in a warning strike, among them many who work for the U.S. military. They demanded higher wages and better working conditions while many fear for their jobs.
“The fear is, of course, enormous. Every day we get new bad news. No one knows how things will develop,” says Jurgen Knaip (58). He is a firefighter employed by the U.S. military in Kaiserslautern and fears he could lose his job.
Suspicious emails
According to union data, a hiring freeze is currently in effect in the civilian sector of the U.S. forces, remote work has been abolished, and employees are increasingly receiving “suspicious” emails. Ilona Lauer, a saleswoman at the Kaiserslautern Military Community Center, angrily says: “We have to list in an email five things we did in the past week. Absolute control!”
Another employee, who wished to remain anonymous, adds that no one knows how to respond to those messages. “It’s frightening that something gets decided in Washington, and already the next day you get such an email.”
In the German town of Baumholder, the previous threats have so far been received quite calmly.
The U.S. has been stationed there for 80 years, and about 8.000 U.S. soldiers and their family members live in the region. In addition, a large number of new apartments are currently being built at the U.S.military base for about 2.000 additional soldiers.
The U.S. military plans to relocate a special unit from Stuttgart to Baumholder and invest around one billion dollars for that purpose.
The U.S. is currently investing significant sums in other military bases in Rhineland-Palatinate as well.
In Weilerbach, near the Ramstein base, a new military hospital is being built, which will become the largest U.S. military clinic outside the U.S. The mayor of the municipality, Ralf Hechler (CDU), therefore sees no signs that the U.S. might withdraw. And even if they were to withdraw, he says, it certainly wouldn’t happen overnight.
