After a month of conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, US President Donald Trump faces a crucial choice – to continue the military escalation or to try to reach an agreement and end the conflict that is increasingly burdening the global economy and his political position.
Rising energy prices and falling support among American voters are further complicating the situation, while Iran continues to attack and block important energy routes in the Persian Gulf, including the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Although there has been intensive diplomatic activity in recent weeks, concrete progress is lacking. According to the White House, Trump is inclined to avoid a protracted war and is seeking a way out through negotiations, but at the same time does not rule out the possibility of stronger military action if the talks fail.
Analysts warn that the US administration does not have a clearly defined goal that would mark the end of the war, which further complicates decision-making. Iran, on the other hand, is showing a willingness to resist for a long time, counting on being able to withstand greater pressure from its opponents.
One option being discussed is a final, powerful airstrike on Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, after which Washington could declare victory and withdraw. However, such a scenario would be questionable without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil passes.
Political pressure is also growing within the United States. Opinion polls show that war is unpopular, while Republicans fear the consequences in the upcoming elections. Trump’s declining approval ratings are further increasing the nervousness in his political circle.
Diplomatic attempts are further hampered by Tehran’s distrust of Washington, especially after previous military actions during the negotiations. Iranian authorities consider the American proposals unacceptable, but do not close the door to future contacts.
In the meantime, Trump is sending contradictory messages – from reassuring statements for the markets to threats of new attacks – leaving the international community in uncertainty.
As the conflict enters its second month, it is clear that neither option offers a quick and easy way out, and the decisions that follow could have long-term consequences for the stability of the region, as well as the global economy.
