Although the year 2026 is marked by strong earthquakes around the world, seismic activity is not unusual, warns seismologist Merima Genjac. For BHRT, she spoke about the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, weak construction control, early warning systems and the role of artificial intelligence in modern seismology.
The powerful earthquakes that have hit different parts of the world in recent months have reopened the question of how prepared humanity is for natural disasters. Areas of Latin America, Asia and Oceania were particularly affected, including Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.
However, an increased number of media reports does not necessarily mean increased seismic activity. As seismologist Merima Genjac from the Center for Seismology in Sarajevo explained to BHRT, earthquakes most often occur precisely in areas that are geologically active.
“Seismic energy is always released in these areas. These are geologically active areas, so what we always see in Japan, Turkey, Latin America are simply zones that are more seismically active and can release a greater amount of energy and cause more devastating earthquakes,” said Genjac.
According to her, what makes this year particularly striking is the high mortality in certain earthquakes, and not necessarily an unusual increase in seismic activity.
“We always have about fifteen statistically stronger earthquakes on the entire planet, so this year is also in line with those statistics,” she stated.
We cannot prevent an earthquake, but we can reduce the consequences
Differences in the number of victims after an earthquake are often related to the quality of construction, the preparedness of the population and the way of spatial planning.
As Genjac points out, Japan is an example of a country that has invested huge resources in reducing the consequences of earthquakes.
“We cannot influence the cause of the earthquake, but what we can influence is definitely construction, settlement of the population, the choice of location for the construction of buildings and so on,” says Genjac.
He adds that Japan is investing billions in early warning systems, preparing the population and building buildings adapted to seismic conditions.
BiH is moderately seismically active
Bosnia and Herzegovina, warns Genjac, is not out of seismic risk.
“We can say that we are a moderately seismically active zone,” she states, explaining that tectonic processes are taking place in the Balkans that cause seismicity.
The areas of Herzegovina, where stronger earthquakes are recorded, stand out. Genjac reminds that in 2022 the earthquake also had a fatal outcome.
However, the problem is not only in the natural danger, but also in the level of preparedness.
“Unfortunately, no. So, the construction is not controlled. We cannot say that we have any construction law, we cannot say that it was all implemented as it should be, in accordance with the seismic risk maps,” warns Genjac.
There is no systemic approach at the state level
The data of the Center for Seismology are used, says Genjac, in cooperation with different institutes, institutions and agencies, especially when creating risk maps for certain areas.
However, according to her, such cooperation is not yet part of a comprehensive and systemic solution.
“If it was solved systemically, let’s say, from the state level, as it should be, unfortunately it was not,” she pointed out.
This is especially important for areas where earthquakes can cause secondary consequences, such as landslides and landslides. Planning and maintenance of traffic infrastructure, especially in seismically active areas, requires consideration of such risks.
A few seconds that can be decisive
One of the most important lines of development of modern seismology is early warning systems.
They cannot predict an earthquake before it happens, but they can allow a warning to reach the user seconds before the strongest seismic waves reach them.
“We are talking about the fact that each of us receives a signal a few seconds before the earthquake, a warning that a strong earthquake will soon follow,” explains Genjac.
The time available depends on the distance from the epicenter and other factors, but even a few seconds can be enough to take a certain protective measure.
Artificial intelligence helps detect new earthquakes
Modern seismology increasingly uses artificial intelligence.
Genjac states that its application reveals a large number of earthquakes that were not previously registered in the catalogs. Such data enable a more precise understanding of seismic activity and the creation of better seismic risk maps.
This can indirectly contribute to safer construction.
Today, seismological research does not end on Earth either. Instruments and seismological methods are also used to study geological activity on Mars and the Moon, while systems are set up in the oceans to collect huge amounts of data that are also used in marine life research.
“That is the most beautiful part of science,” says Genjac.
An earthquake cannot be predicted
Despite the progress of science, one thing remains unchanged – an earthquake cannot be accurately predicted.
That is why, instead of waiting for a disaster, prevention is key: quality construction, appropriate spatial planning, education of the population and developed early warning systems.
As Genjac reminds us, “seismology” is a relatively young science, especially when it comes to instrumental research that began in the 19th century. That is why there is still a lot of room for new discoveries and progress.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the message is clear – earthquakes are a natural phenomenon that cannot be prevented, but their impact on human lives and material damage can be significantly reduced by better preparation and a more responsible attitude towards seismic risk.
