German voters go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, and forecasts suggest the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) could return to power after more than three years in opposition.
The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, is leading in the polls with 29 percent, almost 14 percentage points ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). However, Merz is unlikely to secure an outright majority.
According to the latest poll by the Forsa Institute, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has risen to 21 percent, cementing itself as the second-largest political force. However, the AfD has no path to power as all other parties have rejected the possibility of a coalition with them.
Analysts predict that a coalition government between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats is the most likely option, but due to the large number of undecided voters and Germany’s complex electoral system, the distribution of seats remains uncertain.
According to a survey published on Thursday, almost 27 percent of voters are still undecided about whether they will vote and for whom.
Who is eligible to vote?
More than 59 million Germans are eligible to vote, including 2.3 million first-time voters. The electorate is overwhelmingly older – 42 percent of voters are 60 or older, while only 13 percent are under 30.
More than seven million voters have a migrant background, including more than one million German citizens of Turkish origin.
Historically, turnout has been higher among older voters, while young people and voters with a migrant background have been less likely to vote.
In the 2021 parliamentary elections, turnout was 76.6 percent, while in the 2024 European elections it fell to 64.8 percent.
How does the German electoral system work?
The German chancellor is elected indirectly – citizens elect the parliament, which then votes on the new chancellor.
If the winning party wins a majority in parliament or manages to form a coalition with an absolute majority, its candidate becomes the new chancellor.
Germany uses a mixed electoral system in which voters cast two votes – one to choose a candidate from their constituency, while the other to support a political party, which has a greater impact on the distribution of seats.
Parties must win at least five percent of the total vote or three direct seats to enter parliament, which prevents the fragmentation of the Bundestag.
Who are the main political actors?
4,506 candidates are running for 630 seats in this election.
Women’s representation has fallen slightly – 1,422 women (32 percent) are among the candidates, compared to 33 percent in 2021.
Of the 29 parties competing for the Bundestag, only six are consistently above the five percent electoral threshold:
CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats), SPD (Social Democratic Party), AfD (Alternative for Germany), Greens, Die Linke (The Left), FDP (Free Democrats).
The new left-wing populist party BSW is hovering around the five percent threshold, and if it enters the Bundestag, it could make it more difficult for Merz to form a coalition.
If both the FDP and BSW pass the threshold, the CDU/CSU will likely have to form a three-party coalition, as the traditional parties will have fewer seats.
Who could be the new chancellor?
According to a poll by public broadcaster ZDF, conservative candidate Friedrich Merz has more support than incumbent Chancellor Scholz.
When asked who they would like to see as chancellor, 32 percent of respondents chose Merz, while only 18 percent supported Scholz. The Greens’ candidate, Robert Habeck, received 21 percent support.
AfD candidate Alice Weidel has 14 percent support, while 15 percent of respondents are undecided.
What do the Christian Democrats offer?
Merz (69) has focused his election campaign on the country’s ailing economy and mass migration.
To revive Europe’s largest economy, he has proposed business-oriented measures: reducing corporate tax, ensuring affordable energy and establishing a digital ministry to lead Germany’s reindustrialization through digitalization.
He has promised to establish permanent border controls with neighboring countries to significantly reduce irregular migration, while speeding up deportation procedures for rejected asylum seekers.
Merz has said that Syrians and Afghans without legal status, as well as migrants who have committed serious crimes in Germany, will be deported to their home countries.
He enjoys the support of mostly male voters, but faces opposition among women, who see his political style as arrogant and demeaning to women. His popularity among young people is even lower and is only 13 percent.
Also, Merz has a weak approval rating among voters in the eastern German states, where the AfD has its strongest support base.
What are the SPD’s policies?
During the campaign, Scholz sharply criticized Merz’s populist rhetoric aimed at AfD voters, while emphasizing that the SPD offers practical solutions to economic and migration challenges.
To regain the trust of voters, the 66-year-old Social Democratic veteran has crafted an election program focused on economic growth and social justice.
His key promises include raising the minimum wage to 15 euros per hour from 2026, tax breaks for millions of workers, reducing VAT on basic food products, and lowering energy prices.
Scholz has repeatedly warned voters about the Christian Democrats’ shift to the right and the possibility of their post-election cooperation with the AfD.
In foreign policy, Scholz has taken a balanced stance on Ukraine – supporting German aid but emphasizing the need to avoid direct military involvement in the conflict. He remains resolute against the delivery of long-range Taurus missiles, which could hit targets deep inside Russian territory.
The latest polls show a huge disappointment among voters for the SPD, which had hoped to repeat Scholz’s surprise turnaround in 2021, when he won 25.7 percent of the vote despite having 15 percent support just a few months before the election.
What do the Greens offer?
The Greens’ candidate for chancellor, Robert Habeck (55), has positioned himself as a pragmatic environmentalist, focused on accelerating Germany’s energy transition to renewables while preserving economic stability.
The Greens’ election program is based on ambitious climate protection goals, including achieving 100 percent climate-neutral energy by 2035 and completely phasing out coal by 2030.
Habeck has committed to major investments in green technologies over the next decade, with the aim of modernizing industry and infrastructure and creating sustainable jobs.
On social issues, the Greens advocate a further increase in the minimum wage to compensate for inflation from previous years, closing legal loopholes in rent regulation, reducing construction costs and ensuring affordable housing. They also support a humane approach to migration, with strict and orderly immigration procedures.
Although Habeck enjoys a significantly higher personal approval rating than Scholz, his party’s support stands at 14 percent, a slight decline from the 14.8 percent it won in the 2021 election.
What are the AfD’s policies?
AfD candidate for chancellor Alice Weidel has gained new momentum thanks to the support of the US administration of Donald Trump and the social media posts of billionaire Elon Musk.
According to the latest polls, the AfD is on track to win 21 percent of the vote – a historic record and more than double the result in 2021.
During the campaign, Weidel, 46, focused on migration and promoted the controversial concept of “remigration” – a vague term that implies mass deportations of immigrants.
The party promises to re-establish border controls, abolish social benefits for refugees and deport rejected asylum seekers to their home countries.
Domestically, the AfD advocates reversing the energy transition, expanding the capacity of coal-fired power plants, reactivating nuclear power plants and ending what it calls the Greens’ “climate hysteria”.
In terms of foreign policy, the party advocates a radical transformation of the EU from a supranational institution to a looser “federation of European nations”. It also proposes Germany’s withdrawal from the European Monetary Union and the introduction of a national currency.
As for NATO, the AfD claims to remain committed to membership “until an independent and effective European military alliance is established”. It opposes military aid to Ukraine and demands the lifting of sanctions on Russia, AA writes.
