On January 19th, the first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas began. After 15 months, the Israeli war in Gaza is, supposedly, on hold. All thanks to a deal that was reportedly on the table as early as December 2023 but was only finalized last week after Donald Trump’s intervention, just before his inauguration. The question is: Is this truly a ceasefire or merely a temporary pause that will unravel in the coming weeks?
As H. A. Hellyer, senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute and senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, writes, a ceasefire is usually considered permanent, with a clear and expressed intent for hostilities not to resume. A truce, however, is quite the opposite.
For Hamas, the situation is rather straightforward; the organization needs a ceasefire and has stated its intention to respect all three phases of the agreement. The prospects for Hamas as an organization under the ceasefire remain uncertain, but the options without one are even worse. Hamas is entirely cut off from the outside world, and reports suggest that Gaza residents despise it for the massive crisis into which the Gaza Strip has been plunged as a direct response to Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023.
For Israel, the situation is entirely different. The first phase of the agreement does not provide for the withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF); even if every IDF soldier withdrew from Gaza, Israel would still be an occupying power there, as determined by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). But here, the issue is the intent to halt the fighting, where clear signs of the contrary exist.
The influence of the Israeli right-wing
Trump expressed significant skepticism that the ceasefire would last only hours after assuming the presidency, and key Trump officials, such as his national security advisor and defense secretary, expressed support for Israeli objectives that would, by definition, completely negate the ceasefire.
Public statements by various Israeli ministers in recent days have been quite clear. For example, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that he and his party would remain in the Israeli government due to guarantees he claims to have received from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the war in Gaza would continue. Furthermore, Smotrich declared that Israel intends to “take over Gaza, make it uninhabitable [for Palestinians],” that “the restrictions imposed by the Biden administration will be removed,” and that “Gaza will be destroyed and rendered uninhabitable, and it will remain that way.”
Smotrich apparently believes that the second phase of the agreement, let alone the third phase (when Gaza’s reconstruction is supposed to begin), will never happen. According to Smotrich, Netanyahu’s alleged commitment was the reason he did not leave the government. In Smotrich’s view, the complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza is a necessary war goal, which has not yet been achieved.
As for the Prime Minister himself, Netanyahu has spoken directly to both the Israeli and Western press, making it clear that the ceasefire is “temporary” and that Israel has “full support” to continue the war in Gaza with “immense force.”
Israel has already begun violating the agreement
Furthermore, Netanyahu has already begun violating the agreement. Several Palestinians were killed on January 20th, after the ceasefire went into effect. One element of the agreement mentioned in various leaks was the redeployment of Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor along the border with Egypt during the first phase, moving them to other locations in the Gaza Strip.
However, on the night before the agreement began, Netanyahu confirmed that Israel would not reduce its forces in the Philadelphi Corridor and would instead increase the IDF presence there, violating not only the proposed framework but also the Camp David Agreement with Egypt.
Netanyahu is clearly trying to balance satisfying the Trump administration’s desire to show that a deal has been reached with his own calculations for continuing the war.
As Israeli media pointed out, comments by former Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, who resigned after the Israeli government approved the ceasefire, confirm “the suspicion that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed the return of hostages – even at the cost of their lives – and prolonged the war based on personal interests: his political survival.”
Indeed, Netanyahu’s own chief of staff wrote that the agreement “includes the option to resume fighting at the end of the first phase if negotiations on the second phase do not promise the achievement of war goals: the military and civilian destruction of Hamas and the release of all hostages.”
Israeli media also reported that Netanyahu told his ministers he had a letter from former United States (U.S.) President Joe Biden and a transcript from Trump guaranteeing Israel the right to return to war after the first phase of the agreement or if Hamas violates the agreement. A pro-Netanyahu Israeli media outlet highlighted similar claims about Trump and Biden, reporting that Netanyahu would not have signed the agreement without such guarantees.
The Trump administration has also given little reason for optimism. Netanyahu claims that Trump “emphasized” that the ceasefire is temporary and that Trump decided to “remove all remaining restrictions” on U.S. ammunition. When asked if the war was over, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said, “Hamas must be destroyed to the point that it cannot rebuild.”
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that he supports Israel in killing “every last member of Hamas.”
This does not send the message that the U.S. will pressure Israel to fully implement the ceasefire agreement. Moreover, another Trump official claims that as part of the agreement, Palestinians could be relocated to Indonesia during reconstruction – a proposal that would likely be entirely unacceptable.
Trump himself, in a comment made shortly after his inauguration on January 20th, said he is “not convinced” the ceasefire will hold and stated, “this is not our war; it’s their war.”
The Gaza war is part of a much broader conflict, a central aspect of which is the occupation of East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Prospects there remain bleak.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on January 17th that he is ending administrative detention for Jewish settlers currently in Israeli custody – allegedly for committing and planning terrorist attacks against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. An Israeli official stated that Katz’s decision was made for domestic political reasons.
The likelihood of increased unrest in the West Bank is also almost certain, and it is quite clear that the Trump administration supports Israeli actions that will provoke it. Recently, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Elise Stefanik, stated that she agrees with the view that “Israel has a biblical right to the entire West Bank.”
“As things stand, this is not a deal or agreement – this is a ‘draft’ or ‘framework,’ as Netanyahu’s office has reportedly instructed his cabinet members to call it. It becomes a real agreement and ceasefire only if the U.S. uses its immense pressure and influence on Israel to force it to truly adhere to the terms. Unfortunately, there are few signs that the Trump administration will do so,” Hellyer argues.
He points out that instead, there is potential for increased instability, particularly if the possibility of a Palestinian state is permanently excluded if Israeli annexation of territories in the West Bank occurs, and if Israeli settlement construction in Gaza resumes. Any of these scenarios would have severe consequences for the entire region.
Trump has stated that he expects the expansion of the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia as the next Arab state to normalize relations with Israel. However, the Saudi Arabian government has made it clear that Riyadh has different prerequisites for normalization. Its leaders insist on the establishment of a Palestinian state before normalizing relations – a position rooted in the decades-old Arab Peace Initiative.
“If Trump truly wants to see the full normalization of Israel in the region, the lasting success of this ceasefire is a key first step,” writes Hellyer.
