Iran is planning to attack US military bases in the Middle East, the Iranian Fars news agency reported, citing a source familiar with the military command’s plans.
“The war that began with the aggression of the Zionist regime will spread to all territories occupied by this regime and US bases in the region. The aggressors will receive a decisive and major response from Iran,” the agency’s source said.
Fars also reported today, citing sources, that Iranian attacks on Israel will continue.
“The confrontation will not end with the limited actions of last night and Iranian attacks will continue, and this action will be very painful and regrettable for the aggressors,” Fars quoted an unnamed official as saying, citing senior military officials.
The war between Israel and Iran is currently limited to these two countries. The rest of the world is calling for restraint. But what if this conflict escalates further and spreads beyond these countries?
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The BBC has answered this question, pointing to some of the worst possible scenarios.
Involving America
Iran is convinced that the United States approved or at least tacitly supported the Israeli attack, despite American denials. The country is capable of attacking America throughout the Middle East, targeting, for example, its special forces camps in Iraq, military bases and diplomatic missions.
The militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, which are considered Iranian proxies, may be weakened, but their members in Iraq are armed and intact. Fearing such attacks, the United States has withdrawn some of its personnel. It has warned Iran of the consequences if it attacks American targets.
What could happen if an American citizen is killed in, for example, Tel Aviv or elsewhere?
US President Donald Trump could be forced to act. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been seen as seeking to bring the United States into the fold to help defeat Iran.
Military analysts agree that only America has bombers and bunker-busting bombs that can penetrate Iran’s deepest nuclear facilities, particularly at Fordow.
Trump has promised his supporters that he will not start so-called eternal wars in the Middle East. But many of his Republicans support the Israeli government and its position that the time has come for regime change in Tehran.
If the United States were to become an active participant in this war, it would be a huge escalation with long, potentially devastating consequences.
Gulf States Involvement
If Iran fails to sufficiently damage military and other targets in Israel, it always has the option of launching missile strikes on easier targets in the Gulf States, primarily those it believes have aided and abetted its enemies for years.
There are many energy and infrastructure targets in this part of the world. It is worth noting that Iran was accused of attacking Saudi oil fields in 2019, and that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis attacked targets in the United Arab Emirates in 2022. Later, a kind of reconciliation took place between Iran and some countries in the region.
But these countries are the ones where US bases are located. Some of these countries discreetly helped defend Israel from an Iranian missile attack last year. If the Gulf were attacked, then it could ask the US and Israel to defend it.
Israel’s failure
What if the Israeli attack fails? What if Iran’s nuclear facilities are well protected? What if Iran’s enriched uranium, which is believed to be hidden in secret mines, is not destroyed? The Israelis did kill several Iranian nuclear scientists, but no bomb, as the BBC writes, can destroy Iranian knowledge and expertise.
Furthermore, what if the Israeli attacks lead the Iranians to race for nuclear capabilities, concluding that this is the only way to defend themselves? What if Iran’s new military leadership is more stubborn and less cautious than its slain predecessors? At the very least, that could force Israel to continue its attacks, pushing the region into a constant cycle of attacks and counterattacks.
Global economic shock
Oil is already more expensive because of the war between Israel and Iran. What would happen if Iran tried to block the Strait of Hormuz, further restricting the flow of oil? What if the Houthis redoubled their efforts to attack ships in the Black Sea? It is also worth remembering that it is difficult to assess how much the Houthis are willing to risk.
Prices are already high around the world. Rising oil prices would increase inflation, which is already fueled by Trump’s tariff policies. According to the BBC, the only one who would benefit from rising oil prices would be Russian President Vladimir Putin. Additional billions from Russian oil would also mean the possibility of continuing to finance the aggression against Ukraine.
Vacuum due to the fall of the Iranian regime
What if Israel succeeds in causing the fall of the Iranian regime? Netanyahu claims that his primary goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but yesterday he said that the broader goal is to overthrow the regime. If that were to happen, then some in the region would like it. But would the fall of the regime cause a political vacuum in Iran, would it lead to civil war? Memories of the fall of the regimes in Iraq and Libya are still fresh, writes the BBC.
