The analysis by the Ukrainian retired General, Mykola Zientsev, published for the Ukrainian Ukrinform, warns that the political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina is taking on broader security significance for Europe due to Russian influence and separatist moves in Republika Srpska.
Zientsev said that the weakness of the Dayton order is frequently used to erode central institutions in Sarajevo. He singled out the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, a key associate of Moscow who blocks decisions of the state authorities, challenges rulings of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and leads a boycott of central bodies.
“One of the main associates of the Kremlin in the region is the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, long-time ally and open associate of Vladimir Putin. He regularly visits Moscow and uses his resources to block the decisions by the central government in Sarajevo,” Zientsev wrote for Ukrinform.
As examples of pressure, he cites the questioning of 26 employees of the Srebrenica Memorial Center following a report on genocide denial, as well as the activities of a network of radical groups gathered through ‘Orthodox brotherhoods,” motorcycle clubs, and sports organizations.
“The Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center in the city of Niš plays a special role, which Western experts have repeatedly referred to as a potential base for electronic intelligence operations and the coordination of activities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time, major cyberattacks linked to the Russian hacker groups Midnight Blizzard and Forest Blizzard are underway, with more than 28,000 such attacks recorded against the Belgrade-based Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP). Media outlets such as RT Balkan, as well as propaganda networks tied to Russian intelligence services,provide informational support for these activities,” Zientsev wrote.
The Brčko Status
Zientsev spoke about Brčko as a key point which, from the military aspect, would be the epicenter of the escalation of violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
“Among the scenarios of military escalation, experts often consider an attempt by Serbian forces to break through a corridor through Brčko to connect the eastern and western parts of their territory. Every attempt to forcibly change the status quo would inevitably have international consequences. With NATO member Croatia nearby, the Alliance would be forced to respond by redirecting forces to the Balkans and relocating resources from the Baltic and eastern flank of Europe. Preventing a new crisis will cost much less than overcoming it,” Zientsev wrote.
According to him, everything mentioned requires a strengthening of the international security presence in the most vulnerable areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina, increasing pressure of sanctions against those who undermine the Dayton Agreement, and intensifying cooperation between European Security Services in opposing Russian influence networks.
“The Balkans cannot be ignored. European history has shown more than once that Balkan crises rarely remain only regional. That is why it is important today to prevent Bosnia and Herzegovina from becoming another platform for geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West,” Zientsev concluded, Ukrinform writes.
