New York coffee futures prices rose more than 6 percent on Monday on the ICE exchange to a new all-time record above $4.30 per pound (0.45 kg), with some market participants citing panic in the market due to limited coffee availability.
Arabica coffee futures hit a record for the 13th trading session in a row. Reports of a dry and hot weather system forming over Brazil’s coffee regions helped boost new prices as farmers in the world’s biggest grower reluctantly sold.
“Panic has finally set in, prices will continue to rise. There are only two things that can stop it: First, Brazil and Vietnam have a good yield year (not expected until August 2026). Second, there is enough demand destruction in consumer countries due to price increases,” said Bob Fish, co-founder of the Biggby Coffee franchise, which has 350 stores in several US states.
Fish suggested that coffee shops in the US raise their prices or risk having their profit margins “evaporate”.
Coffee futures in New York, considered the global price benchmark, earlier hit a record high of $4.2410 a pound, closing up 6.2 percent at $4.211 a pound.
Prices have risen about 35 percent this year after a 70 percent jump last year.
There are concerns in the market about tight supplies in Brazil, which produces almost half of the world’s arabica. Farmers there have sold about 85 percent of the current crop and are in no rush to sell more.
“The coffee that remains on the balance sheet could be on the ‘wrong’ side of the world, in the hands of strong Brazilian producers,” said a coffee broker, suggesting that the country’s farmers are well-financed. Traders, however, say the arabica boom has become somewhat self-sufficient and out of step with the fundamentals.
“There are those who believe that the next Brazilian harvest could be better than expected, not enough to surpass last year’s, but enough to make the outlook a little better,” said Icona Cafe trader.
Broker Hedgepoint even expects Brazil to produce more coffee this year than last, with 64.1 million bags booked for 2025/26. compared to an estimated 63.4 million for the previous season.
