According to Der Standard newspaper, NATO troops could be stationed in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) if Russia blocks the expansion of EUFOR in the United Nations (UN) Security Council in November this year.
It was mentioned in the analysis of journalist Adelheid Wölfl, that Milorad Dodik, the head of the largest Bosnian Serb party, the SNSD, does not hide his feelings. He is obviously on the side of Russia, despite the aggression of this country on Ukraine. He stated at a rally in Bijeljina a few days ago: “Long live Serbia, long live Russia, long live Republika Srpska (RS)!”.
His supporters applauded loudly. RS is a small part of BiH. And Dodik, who has been under the United States (U.S.) sanctions for years, and is now being sanctioned by the United Kingdom (UK), is closely cooperating with the Kremlin.
”It is this connection to Vladimir Putin’s regime that makes this Bosnian politician a risk factor for the entire region. Because no one knows exactly what he agreed with Russia and what his next steps will be. Dodik’s goal has been to destroy the state of BiHfor years in an effort to secede from RS, ”Wölfl believes.
She noted that according to diplomats, Dodik could soon be tried for corruption. Investigations are already underway in BiH. The documents from Serbia about Dodik’s possession of a villa on the territory of that country are a decisive factor, which could be transferred to BiH in the case that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic withdraws his support for Dodik.
”In any case, the problem with the scenario would be that one would get the impression that these are not investigations of an independent judiciary, but political agreements between the West and Vucic. If that were the case, those who want Dodik in court would also take political revenge on Vucic.
For the state of BiH, however, the interference of the neighboring states of Serbia and Croatia has always been particularly harmful because it violates its sovereignty. Nevertheless, Western diplomats have encouraged this interference over and over again. They asked Vucic several times to influence Dodik. Vucic, of course, used that to pretend to be a great factor of stability in the Balkans. Apparently, Dodik himself is worried that his political career could end before the elections this fall.
High Representative Christian Schmidt, who has been in office since the summer of 2021, is now using the Bonn powers for the first time. Namely, according to the diplomats, he planned to take even more comprehensive measures against Dodik’s SNSD attack on the Dayton Peace Agreement. He was calmed down by representatives of the European Union (EU), but also of Germany. He obviously wanted to pass a law that would prevent investments in RS when it comes to state property that RS intended to seize illegally, ” Wölfl stressed in the analysis.
The EU Delegation and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) were often in competition.
”Initially, the OHR was to be dissolved and his mediations were to be taken over by the EU. But because nationalists in BiH, backed by Serbia, Russia, and parts of Croatia, want to continue threatening and destroying the state, the OHR has never been shut down. The conditions for that have never been met. At the same time, the EU has lost credibility and power in six non-EU countries in Southeast Europe in past years because it has not kept its promises.
Bosnian Serb nationalists like Dodik and his SNSD no longer recognize the OHR, and Russia no longer supports the institution and the High Representative. And for that reason, it will be difficult for the OHR to implement the decisions it makes in RS, ” Adelheid Wölfl pointed out at the end of the analysis for Der Standard, Klix.ba reports.
E.Dz.
