The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is primarily driven by geopolitical ambitions and the pursuit of regional dominance, rather than being a war of the American, Iranian, or Arab peoples, said Emir Hadžikadunić, professor at the Sarajevo School of Science and Technology (SSST).
Speaking at a regular session of the association Krug 99 on the topic “The American-Israeli War with Iran: What It Is and How It Can End,” Hadžikadunić said public support for war in the United States was limited even before the conflict began. According to him, around 20 percent of American citizens supported a military option before the escalation, while only six percent of members of the Democratic Party favored armed intervention. After the outbreak of hostilities, support dropped to less than one third of Americans.
Hadžikadunić stressed that the conflict cannot be described as Iran’s war either, arguing that neither the Iranian government nor its citizens sought it. He said Iran had shown interest in negotiations and a potential agreement with the United States, recognizing that failure to reach a deal could lead to confrontation.
He also rejected the idea that the conflict represents an Arab war, noting that Gulf states are “caught between two fires,” facing serious economic and security consequences. In his view, the conflict was not launched with the aim of introducing democracy in Iran, recalling the outcomes of previous U.S. interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
According to the professor, the conflict can partly be interpreted as an attempt by Israel to secure regional supremacy in the Middle East with the backing of the United States. He added that it may also reflect the ambitions of U.S. President Donald Trump, who seeks to resolve the long-standing dispute between Washington and Iran that dates back to the Iranian Revolution. Hadžikadunić noted that no U.S. administration since Jimmy Carter has managed to settle the issue.
Discussing Iran’s nuclear program, he explained that the country’s civilian nuclear activities began in the late 1960s and 1970s with support from the United States and Israel, when Iran was still their ally. The first reactor in Bushehr was built by German companies. Iran later signed international agreements on nuclear non-proliferation and allowed inspections, particularly following the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. However, the United States later withdrew from the deal during Trump’s presidency.
Hadžikadunić said a significant shift occurred after last year’s 12-day conflict in June, when Iran’s nuclear program was left without international monitoring. As a result, the international community currently lacks oversight of nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Natanz, as well as information about the amount of enriched uranium.
He warned that the conflict could also have serious security repercussions. Iran is facing internal instability due to opposition activity, while tensions are spreading across the Gulf region, where U.S. military bases are located in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain.
The crisis is also producing global economic effects. Hadžikadunić said rising energy prices are already impacting markets worldwide, including Bosnia and Herzegovina. Trade and logistics flows are further disrupted because regional hubs such as Dubai and Singapore play an important role in global supply chains.
Commenting on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s support for one of the international resolutions related to the conflict, Hadžikadunić said the decision carries both rational and emotional elements. He added that political leaders – from members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the country’s representative at the United Nations – should explain the reasoning behind it, although he believes it was motivated by the protection of national interests.
At the same time, he highlighted the humanitarian dimension of the conflict, saying that Iran is experiencing significant civilian casualties, including women and children.
“This reflects a world where the powerful do what they want, while the weak suffer the consequences,” Hadžikadunić concluded.
