The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday has increased the risk of a broader regional conflict and could either help or harm the prospects for a ceasefire agreement to end the Israeli war in Gaza, according to several analysts.
Haniyeh was killed while attending the inauguration of Iran’s reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in the Iranian capital, Tehran. Hamas blamed Israel for the assassination, stating in a statement that Haniyeh was killed in a “Zionist attack on his residence in Tehran.” There was no comment from Israel.
The attack occurred just hours after Israel conducted an assault on a building in Dahieh, a neighborhood in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, killing Fuad Shukr, a senior commander of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Risk of further escalation
Moreover, the assassination of Haniyeh and Shukr is likely to force Iran and Hezbollah to respond delicately to avoid a full-scale regional conflict. It is reported that diplomats from the United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) are negotiating with their regional counterparts, trying to prevent the crisis from escalating further. EU efforts are believed to be focused on Iran, whose leaders have promised “harsh revenge” against Israel, whom they blamed for the killing in Tehran.
The attack on two regional capitals and the targeting of two senior leaders of the “Axis of Resistance” – a regional network of armed groups opposing Israeli-U.S. hegemony in the region – is an “escalation that can spread this war on multiple fronts,” said Negar Mortazavi, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.
What about the ceasefire agreement in Gaza?
In recent months, Hamas and Israel have been engaged in ceasefire negotiations aimed at ending the killing in Gaza and freeing Israeli captives in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners, who are reportedly facing abuse in Israeli prisons.
However, critics and experts argue that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has often undermined ceasefire negotiations.
They accuse Netanyahu, whose popularity is at a historic low, of being unwilling to end the war for fear it could collapse his far-right coalition government and trigger early elections.
But Mairav Zonszein, an Israel and Palestine expert at the International Crisis Group, believes Netanyahu might try to promote Haniyeh’s assassination as an “Israeli victory,” making it politically feasible for him to agree to a ceasefire.
Azmi Keshawi, a Crisis Group researcher and Hamas expert, believes Israel could soon agree to a deal if it can capitalize on the momentum from Haniyeh’s assassination.
