High Representative Christian Schmidt stated for Austrian media that the sanctions which that country, together with Germany, imposed on the president of the Bosnian and Herzegovinian (BiH)entity Republika Srpska (RS), he sees as the beginning of a new “coalition of the willing.” He believes that the Austrian sanctions especially hit Dodik hard, but that there are “legal obstacles” to sanctioning the network of companies allegedly connected to him. “I am currently working on finding a solution,” he emphasized.
Schmidt said that the verdict against Dodik for not complying with the decisions of the High Representative was “completely justified,” and explained:
“But those decisions were not directly addressed to him. In an amendment to the Criminal Code, I stated that the rulings of the Constitutional Court and the decisions of the High Representative apply also in RS and that they must be published there. Dodik does not like the Constitutional Court, nor me – but these are key institutions of the Dayton Peace Agreement. He opposed that amendment of mine. If someone knows they are driving faster than the speed limit, they must bear the consequences,” he added.
Responding to the question of whether the verdict contributed to increasing the already high tensions in the country, Schmidt said:
“Tensions rose only for Dodik. Yes, he has a few supporters. But do we see a great popular uprising in RS in his favor? No.”
He pointed out that many residents of the RS entity have relatives in Vienna, Graz, Munich, Frankfurt, Zurich…
“That’s why Dodik gets very little support for his isolationism. Besides that, he no longer has control over himself, he told people: ‘If someone works for the state of BiH, their property will be confiscated.’ Well, we’re not in North Korea! People don’t accept that,” said the High Representative.
Mistake of the international community
Schmidt explained that Dodik “was not always such a super-nationalist,” and noted that after the war, he was considered a reformist.
“Many things he criticizes today – such as the creation of joint institutions – he supported at the time. Over the years, something changed in him,” he said.
When asked what might have changed, Schmidt replied:
“I assume that it partly has to do with us as the international community. After the mid-2000s, there was a sense that everything was actually finished in BiH and that the country would now naturally develop toward the European Union (EU). In European capitals, people stopped thinking about BiH. Meanwhile, the ethno-nationalist political agenda gained more and more support – and we all overlooked that together. In Dodik’s change, his conglomerate networking in the economy certainly played a role. Through numerous non-transparent companies, he developed various financial interests.”
What’s next?
The journalist then noted that the BiH Prosecutor’s Office had issued a warrant for Dodik’s arrest, that no one has arrested him so far because he is obviously protected 24 hours a day by heavily armed security forces. She reminded that Interpol refused to issue an international arrest warrant and that he was recently even able to visit his friends in Belgrade and Moscow. She asked Schmidt: “What’s next?”
“If Dodik wants to play a political role in BiH, he cannot do so from abroad. He must be able to operate and must be present, to appear. Regardless of where he is currently, he will probably always have to re-enter the country if he leaves it. And then he comes into conflict with the law. There are many arrest warrants in the world that still have not been carried out. That doesn’t mean they have become invalid,” emphasized Schmidt.
He also commented on the claims that Dodik could “disappear in Russia,” as has been speculated in recent days.
“You think he could get an apartment next to Assad? Then Dodik would probably have stayed there right away when he visited Moscow a few days ago. But, of course, I can’t tell you who is planning what,” he answered.
When asked what would happen if Dodik really disappeared from the political scene, and whether some new separatist would simply come in his place, Schmidt quoted Jean Monnet:
“I don’t know if it will be better if it’s different. I only know that it must be different if we want it to be better.”
“A real problem for Dodik”
The EU has so far failed to agree on sanctions against Dodikbecause Hungary is blocking it. However, Austria and Germany have now banned him from entering.
Schmidt believes that this means “a great deal”:
“That’s a real problem for Dodik because he liked to use Vienna as a meeting place for various encounters. Moreover, the symbolic value of that move is great. And Germany has announced a similar ban. Here I see the beginning of a new ‘coalition of the willing’.”
The journalist pointed out that the sanctions should also include the network of companies connected to Dodik abroad which Schmidt mentioned, and noted that in the United States (U.S.), for example, it is forbidden to cooperate with companies connected to him.
“In some EU countries, including Austria, there are legal obstacles to that. I am currently working on finding a solution,” Schmidt replied.
However, he emphasized that for Dodik, blockades are already appearing in the fact that there are practically no more European economic incentives in RS.
“But we also do not want that region to be left without investment, because then even more young people leave. And that is already the biggest problem that BiH has,” he stressed.
Is the EU changing its approach?
Schmidt does not see a danger of war and assessed that the situation is “basically stable.”
“Most people here – as research also shows – do not want the country to fall apart. But right here in Sarajevo, we once failed to recognize in time that a war was coming. People are insecure and fear that the international community will forget them again. Their response to that, however, is not to take up arms – because there are hardly any – but to leave.”
When asked what the EU can do about that fear, he replied that the EU has already reacted.
“Until five years ago, BiH only received polite messages and the occasional program, but there was no real work with that country nor progress toward membership. That has now changed. But people here now expect that after twenty years they will finally see tangible European integration. I believe that the Austrian model of gradual accession is the only realistic path. BiH is still not legally, politically, or economically ready to quickly become a full member. To say: ‘Now you implement our tens of thousands of regulations, and then we’ll get back to you’ – that’s how the world used to work. Not anymore,” Schmidt concluded.
