According to Eurostat data, by 2050, the population of the Balkans will decrease by more than 15%
This trend seriously threatens the long-term economic growth and productivity of countries in the region, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania.
The brain drain, or the mass departure of skilled labor from the Balkan countries, is one of the most serious economic and demographic challenges this region faces. According to data from the World Bank, in the last ten years alone, more than 2.5 million people have left the Western Balkans in search of better living conditions in Western Europe.
Loss of skilled labor
One of the key issues of migration in the region is the departure of highly educated young people, experts in IT, engineering, medicine, and other key sectors. According to data from 2021, more than 70% of young people in BiH are considering leaving, while similar statistics show that in Serbia, around 80% of young people want to leave in search of better opportunities, according to research by the Center for Migration Studies. The departure of highly educated professionals reduces the competitiveness of the domestic workforce, leaving companies without key individuals for innovation and development.
For example, the healthcare sector in BiH faces a serious shortage of doctors and medical staff. According to data from the Medical Chamber of the Federation of BiH (FBiH), from 2013 to 2020, more than 5.000 doctors left BiH. The departure of such professionals creates not only a direct economic loss through the reduction of the workforce but also indirect costs, such as the lengthy education of new personnel and additional pressure on the healthcare system.
Demographic changes and the impact on the labor market
According to Eurostat data, by 2050, the population of the Balkans will decrease by more than 15%. This dramatic decline is caused by a combination of low birth rates and mass migration. The result is an aging population, where a shrinking number of working-age people must support a growing number of retirees. In Serbia, the average age of the population is already 43, and in Croatia, it is 45, posing a significant burden on the pension system and healthcare.
According to research by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Balkans lose more than 4 billion euros annually due to the brain drain, significantly impacting the gross domestic product (GDP) of the region’s countries. The reduction in the number of working-age people hinders company growth and slows innovation, while reduced tax revenues further strain state budgets.
Sustainability of economic growth
Migration reduces the potential for economic growth as well as innovation. Investments in the education and professional training of young people become futile if they continue their careers outside their home countries. For example, BiH invests over 150 million BAM annually in the education of highly qualified professionals, but much of that investment benefits Western economies that absorb this skilled labor.
The decline in the number of working-age citizens negatively affects state income through taxes. With fewer workers contributing to the budget, the pressure on social and pension funds increases, leading to serious sustainability issues. This pressure on public finances further slows opportunities for infrastructure development, healthcare, and education.
Positive examples: The return of experts to their homeland
Although the brain drain trend seems irreversible, there are positive examples of experts returning to the region. According to the Ministry of Human Rights and Refugees of BiH, in the past five years, more than 15.000 people, mainly highly educated professionals, have returned to the country through various support programs. Initiatives such as “Diaspora for Development,” supported by UNDP and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, have managed to attract diaspora professionals to engage in the development of local communities through education and the opening of new businesses.
The brain drain and demographic changes represent a serious challenge for the economic development of the Balkans, but there are solutions. With investments in better working conditions, education, and support for entrepreneurs, the countries of the region can create an environment that encourages the retention of young people and the return of emigrated professionals. Examples of successful returns and investments in local communities show that, while migration presents a challenge, it can also become an opportunity for long-term development if managed correctly.
Citizens deserve an economic environment that allows them to build their future in their own country, rather than seeking it elsewhere.
