Former National Security Advisor to US President Donald Trump, John Bolton, told Fena that a path to NATO membership is crucial for BiH and other countries struggling to access the Alliance. However, political turmoil in Washington following the Congressional elections leaves little room for stronger US engagement in the Western Balkans.
Bolton, who served as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, believes that the Trump administration made a mistake, as it failed to devote enough attention to the stability of the Balkans, especially considering the Russian threat to Ukraine, unresolved disputes after the breakup of Yugoslavia, and, according to him, new tensions encouraged by Russian interference in the region.
“It would be more in Washington’s interest to be more actively engaged in the Balkans, but this did not happen. With all the political turmoil I expect in Washington, I don’t think the region will gain much more attention,” Bolton said.
He assessed that the most probable outcome is the continuation of the US policy so far, but warned that he doesn’t see this continuity as positive. Some catastrophe could attract Washington’s attention, something that isn’t in anybody’s interest.
NATO Membership Crucial for the Security of BiH and the Region
Speaking of the Euro-Atlantic integration of BiH and other countries of the region, he emphasized that he sees NATO membership as much more important in many aspects than EU membership.
“A path towards NATO membership is absolutely crucial for all countries that intend to join the Alliance,” he said.
He related such an assessment to the strengthening of Russian activities within the framework of so-called gray-zone warfare in Eastern and Central Europe. As an example, he cited frequent bomb threats on commercial aircraft, with the explicit disclaimer that there is no conclusive evidence that Russia supports them.
According to him, on the day of the discussion, more than 10 such threats were recorded, mostly in Central and Eastern Europe, while a similar series of threats was recorded two days ago.
Bolton believes that such acts aim to cause instability, especially in the Western Balkans, and send a message that support for Ukraine has a price that countries that are not NATO members could pay.
“This concerns me very much. I would like Trump to advocate for NATO. But this was not one of his priorities. I hope he won’t make things worse and that other members understand that the further expansion of NATO is in the interest of all in the North-Atlantic alliance,” he said.
Stability of BiH Crucial for the Entire Balkans
When asked about the Trump administration’s attitude towards the political leadership of Republika Srpska, separatist rhetoric, and the protection of the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bolton reiterated that US Foreign Policy, since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia in the early 90s, assumes that the stability of BiH is crucial for the stability of the Balkans.
This policy, he added, had its ups and downs, but a strong US commitment to the stability of BiH is very important.
He assessed that many EU attempts to resolve matters contributing to the instability failed, and that the US policy did not contribute much to the actual resolution of disputes,
However, he believes that the US stance on preserving stability remained pretty clear.
“I don’t expect this will change, but I want to emphasize that this is more a consequence of inertia, or the fact that no one is dealing with this matter or stating that we need a new policy, rather than a reaffirmation of existing policy,” Bolton told Fena.
Even after the change of power relations in the Congress, he doesn’t expect fast or significant US sanction changes against individuals in BiH, or a general approach to sanctions and other economic pressures that were implemented over the years.
Such expectations, he explained, do not mean that he sees the current state as good, but rather as a consequence of a lack of attention paid to the region by the highest levels of the US government.
“Maybe this will change, or maybe there will be an opportunity for people to deal with it more. This would be a positive development, but I wouldn’t count on it happening quickly after the new Congress takes office,” he said.
The Fall of Vučić’s Government is a Historical Event, but Many Challenges Await Serbia
Reflecting on political changes in Serbia, Belton assessed the fall of Aleksandar Vučić’s government as a historically significant event. However, he emphasized that it is yet to be seen whether the Student List can offer a coherent program and establish a stable alternative to the government so far.
According to him, there are many internal disputes in Serbia that need to be resolved, and he is not convinced that the interference of the United States or other foreign actors would help that process.
“As long as there is a peaceful transition, Vučić and his supporters concede defeat, and winners aim to form a new government, I think these are positive moves and something I would like to see in all countries of the region,” Bolton said.
Therefore, he believes, it would be justifiable to wait and track the unfolding of events in the short term. He also warned that, without the State Department leadership that would deal with these matters in full capacity, it is difficult to ensure that decision-makers in Washington devote sufficient attention and time to devising a more consistent approach following, as he said, the very significant consequences of the elections in Serbia.
A bigger picture of the US policy towards the region, according to Bolton’s assessment, will be marked by fierce political struggle in Washington following the Democrats’ victory in the midterm elections and their assumption of control over both houses of Congress.
He interpreted the election results as a strong rejection of Trump’s past performance, reminding that the president invited voters to view the elections as a referendum on his work.
“He said: ‘Please, pretend that I am on the ballot too,’ something you don’t want to do in midterm elections, because voters use them to express opposition to policies they do not like,” Bolton said.
He also said that the president’s party most frequently loses seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate in such elections. Trump, he assessed, additionally insisted on personalization of the elections, which the Democrats gladly accepted, and voters told him they were unhappy with his work in the first two years of his term.
However, Bolton emphasized that a convincing Democratic victory does not necessarily mean support for a clear political alternative, because, according to him, they haven’t offered it.
He described their internal relations as less clear than the relations within the Republican Party, which is why he believes it is hard to predict future developments.
“I am quite certain that Democrats and Republicans will wage political trench warfare in Congress over the next two years,” he assessed.
He expects that Democrats will try to investigate everything Trump did during the first two years of his current presidential mandate. They will also try to impose their own political program, although their legislative range will be limited by the presidential veto power.
Bolton explained that overcoming a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress, which the Democrats do not have.
“I think there will be a lot of fast-paced activity that will consume a lot of time and energy, but I don’t think that much will come of it,” he said.
He added that a large part of these clashes will take place in the shadow of the next presidential elections, for which, in his assessment, the political race has already begun.
Trump’s influence is waning, but a U-turn in U.S. foreign policy is not certain.
Regarding foreign policy, he believes it is even harder to expect an immediate impact from the election results, given that the U.S. Constitution leaves the president wide-ranging powers in that area. Democrats can use Congress’s budgetary powers as a means of pressure, but Bolton does not expect that this will fundamentally change Trump’s way of conducting foreign policy.
He assessed that Trump has not followed a consistent political line so far and that he sees no reason why that would change in the final two years of his term.
“The prevailing fact will be that he is entering the final period of his presidential term, when his political influence is waning. With each passing day, it is clear to everyone that we are a step closer to the next presidential elections,” Bolton concluded in an interview with Fena.
