Six days before the European Council meeting in Brussels, it is almost certain that Bosnia and Herzegovina will not meet the key conditions for opening negotiations with the European Union. The laws on the Court of BiH and the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council have still not been adopted, and the appointment of a chief negotiator is still missing. As things stand, this will leave BiH without the first tranche of 70 million euros foreseen in the Growth Plan.
The last sessions of both houses of the state parliament have shown that reaching an agreement is almost mission impossible. Even the appointment of a chief negotiator is no longer in question. However, HDZ BiH leader Dragan Čović remains optimistic. He says that on Monday we will see if there is political will: “If that doesn’t happen – which is a real possibility, and that something positive will happen – I am always optimistic, irreparable, until that Thursday and then we will see. Then we have that lull that will be. BiH is in its place where it has been until now. Without any progress. I hope that we will look at the real geopolitical moment and BiH in the context of these geopolitical circumstances a little differently and that we will understand that our Euro-Atlantic path – I will say this very loudly – has no alternative.”
Everyone is declaratively in favor of the European path, but reality shows a different picture. The government and the opposition accuse each other of the setbacks, and they also see the culprits among their neighbors. Deputy Speaker of the RS National Assembly Anja Ljubojević (SNSD) claims that the positive messages from Brussels are due exclusively to representatives of the SNSD, the coalition and the HDZ, while she accuses the Troika of populism and an attempt to overthrow the representatives from the RS. On the other hand, opposition member Nebojša Vukanović believes that BiH is losing huge funds due to irresponsibility and that it must decide – if it does not want to join the EU, where it wants to go: “Then we have to join BRICS”, he says.
Zlatan Begić from the DF is pessimistic: “I am sure that we will never finish this journey. Just when we would have adopted everything they ask of us. And you see that we cannot adopt the most important part of it – which are the amendments to the Election Law in accordance with the rulings of the European Court. Why? Because one of the EU member states, Croatia, is constantly digging here.”
Political analyst Tanja Topić believes that a paradox is at work in BiH: the biggest advocates of the EU are simultaneously spreading Euroscepticism. “The actors who make up the coalition at the state level have started accusing each other. Mutual conditioning has begun, as we are used to practicing politics in BiH. To get to where we are today – to nothing.”
In theory, there is still a possibility that the European Union could turn a blind eye to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political chaos and set a date for the start of negotiations. But only in theory. In practice, Europe has never been further along.
