Russia produces almost three times more artillery munitions than the United States (U.S.) and Europe combined, according to Western intelligence estimates.
According to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production, the Russian Federation is capable of producing about 250,000 shells per month, or about 3 million per year.
Together, the U.S. and Europe can only produce about 1.2 million pieces of ammunition per year to send to Ukraine, CNN reported.
The U.S. has set a target of producing 100,000 grenades per month by the end of 2025, which is less than half of Russia’s monthly output, and even that figure is now out of reach because $60 billion in funding to Ukraine is blocked in Congress.
“What we are in now is a production war. The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to fight this war,” said the NATO representative.
Officials say Russia now fires 10,000 shells a day, while Ukraine can only use 2,000. Representatives of a European intelligence service report that in some parts of the contact line the ratio is even worse.
“The number one issue we’re looking at right now is munitions because that’s where Russia really creates a significant manufacturing advantage and creates a significant battlefield advantage,” the NATO representative added.
The source says that shell factories in the Russian Federation are working around the clock. In addition, Russia imports ammunition from Iran and North Korea.
According to Western estimates, Iran sent at least 300,000 grenades last year, “probably more than that.” And North Korea secured at least 6,700 ammunition containers containing millions of shells.
Russia “has thrown everything it has into the game. Their war machine is working at full speed,” the source added.
At the same time, according to U.S. and Western officials, Russia’s weapons stockpile is still insufficient to meet all needs.
In addition, Western intelligence agencies do not expect Russia to make significant progress on the battlefield in the short term.
Officials say there is a limit to Russian production capacity, adding that Russian factories are likely to peak production sometime next year.
The U.S. and Western officials insist that Western countries will eventually catch up with Russia and produce more equipment.
However, intelligence officials believe that while neither side is yet ready to make a decisive move, the overall outlook is in Moscow’s favor in the long term, especially if additional aid from the U.S. continues to be withheld.
“It’s not going well, but it all depends. If aid restarts and comes quickly, all is not lost,” the source said, Klix.ba reports.
E.Dz.
