It seems that both NATO and the European Union (EU) have finally resolved who will lead them in the coming years. First, the ambassadors of the military alliance confirmed on June 26thwhat has been known for several weeks – that the current Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will replace Jens Stoltenberg on October 1st.
Elsewhere in the Belgian capital, European leaders are ready to hand Ursula von der Leyen another five-year term as president of the European Commission, as well as replace Charles Michel with former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa as president of the European Council, and Josep Borrell with current Estonian leader Kaja Kallas as chief official for the foreign policy of the Union.
Von der Leyen and Kallas must first pass votes in the European Parliament – the first as early as mid-July, while Kallas faces tough hearings later in the fall. Both are expected to survive, but it would be safer for the countries of Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, which are hoping for the EU and NATO, to keep the champagne on ice.
Although the names sound good and their positions are important, they themselves do not make policies. In fact, they are far from it. In the EU, as well as in NATO, all important decisions are still made by the member states – unanimously, such as decisions on sanctions and the expansion of membership in their caucus.
Powerful
Of the five, Von der Leyen is the most politically powerful. The European Commission is the executive body of the Union and proposes new legislation. It can sue its members, negotiate trade deals, oversee the EU’s single market (as the United States – U.S. tech companies and Chinese companies have painfully experienced through heavy fines that hit their pockets) and oversee a two trillion euro budget with great discretion over disposal and retention of that money.
One of Von der Leyen’s problems in her first term was that she did not get along well with the president across from her, the Belgian Charles Michel, who heads the European Council. Their power struggle and big egos were the subject of endless Brussels gossip and a certain institutional dysfunction. It might get smoother now, as it is said she gets along with the likely new successor.
Already a favorite
Antonio Costa seems to be a favorite among most, if not all, of the other EU heads of state and government. He is fluent in both English and French, an added plus, as is his experience, with people telling me that the 62-year-old is unlikely to be as fiercely ambitious as his young predecessor, and that he views this job as his final contribution to high politics. Also widely respected in the “Global South”, given that his father is of half-Goan, half-Mozambican descent, Costa will be the first non-white leader of an EU institution.
Brave
And that’s how we got to Kallas, a Russian hawk so big it’s on Moscow’s wanted list. Her intuitive hostility to the Kremlin makes her, at least in Western member states, unsuitable for the job of NATO secretary general, a position she also ran for. Apart from Russia, she has been vocal in her criticism of Georgia’s democratic backsliding, and although she is a supporter of enlargement, she is expected to be much stricter towards Serbia than previous top EU diplomats.
What about NATO?
It can be said they play it safe. Rutte is in many ways an extension of Jens Stoltenberg, the longest-serving secretary-general in the history of the military organization with a ten-year mandate. That means – experienced (he was the Dutch prime minister for 14 years), beloved by big players like France, Germany, the United Kingdom – UK and the U.S., and an expert at reaching compromises by running the many seemingly clumsy multi-party governments in The Hague.
So, very similar, as before. And it will stay that way. As some say, he is very funny as a person, but he is also known for strictly adhering to the continuity of the process – he always goes to the same hotels and restaurants, orders the same things. NATO, in other words, will be in very safe but inexperienced hands, RSE writes.
E.Dz.
