News that shook the international political scene. US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order suspending US support for 66 organizations, agencies and commissions, including those associated with the UN.
Trump’s decision could have a direct impact on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Among the organizations from which the US is withdrawing are the International Residual Mechanism for War Crimes in The Hague, the Venice Commission and the Council for Regional Cooperation. Important institutions for our country, both in the past and for the future. The real question is who could follow them.
Judged, signed, etched in history. For generations to come, the Hague Tribunal established the legal continuity of verdicts on genocide and war crimes committed in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And the black on white is not erased and not even the withdrawal of the USA can change that.
“We have confirmed, sealed the verdicts before the UN General Assembly. Everything is certified, signed, completed,” said Murat Tahirović, president of the Association of Genocide Victims and Witnesses.
However, without the full financial and political support of the state, which was one of the key sponsors of the Tribunal, other issues arise. First, the archive that must remain under the auspices of the UN, and then there is room for political manipulation and a shaky judicial framework.
“Of course, it will try to be misused in Bosnia, not only in Bosnia but also in the region, for the purpose of minimizing or denying verdicts, we already have that. The question now is how to solve the complete archive of the International Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, where to place it,” adds Tahirović.
Our country largely depends on the attitudes of the great powers. The American ones – they are important for the European path and the enlargement process. A tangled game at the World Cup could be decisive for the domestic, judicial, field. Trump’s decision also affected the Venice Commission, which plays a key role in the reform of the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There is no important law or decision that did not depend on the opinion of the Commission. From the electoral law, ethnic quotas, and we are waiting for the attitude to attempt the latest changes in the HJPC and the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
“They made a huge contribution to the work of the Venice Commission, and especially when it comes to us, they had a benevolent approach with an understanding of the constitutional structure, and in fact in several situations that were decided upon, which are important for us, they were on this positive side,” said Zlatko Knežević, a member of the Venice Commission.
And so, of the three largest world powers – the USA, China and Russia, none participates anymore. They say they learned about the decision of the USA in the Council for Regional Cooperation from the media. They do not have any clarifications, but they emphasize that a formal departure does not necessarily mean the end of cooperation.
“Until now, we have successfully cooperated with countries that are not formally part of the governing structures, but are essentially dedicated to preserving regional stability and prosperity of Southeast Europe – the USA has been an important contributor and guarantor of such cooperation over the past years, and I hope that it will continue in some other form,” said Amer Kapetanović, Secretary General of the RCC.
But with the first American earthquake, the tip of the world iceberg could easily melt. They are leaders in many areas, and often leaders. Following their own and, nevertheless, the interests of the USA, the question is whether other centers will be able to follow the same path.
“Probably, with the domino theory, the entire South American and North American complex will reduce participation, if not leave, so nothing is good for us in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Because we are losing the support of a large legal school and organization that was, as a rule, well-intentioned towards us,” added Knežević.
And the key one. In the series of challenges that threaten us, will we be able to manage on our own in this adjustment? The USA may not give up on Bosnia and Herzegovina, but there is certainly a visible change in the American view, and we are not ranked high on the list of priorities either. We know that they are negative, but the real consequences of Trump’s decision are yet to be analyzed.
