Rising food costs, economic stagnation and deteriorating living standards could push voters into the hands of the far right in the European elections later this year, which could further shake up the political agenda in Brussels.
EU citizens are faced with multiple crises
While the European Union’s economy was recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022, forcing Europe to look for new sources of energy.
Gas and electricity prices have risen, hurting households and businesses.
In the midst of rising living costs, Europe’s far right has thrived. Giorgia Meloni won the elections in Italy in 2022, and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands last year.
“There is a correlation between the rise of populist forces and the economic and financial crisis,” said Thierry Chopin, a political scientist at the Jacques Delors Institute.
“The radical right today is significantly exploiting the sense of impoverishment” and “very strong pessimism” among voters, Chopin said.
Inflation is still falling, giving European politicians hope that the EU economy will improve after more than a year of no growth.
But the improvements will only become visible after the summer, not during the EU-wide elections for the European Parliament from June 6 to 9.
Almost three out of four EU residents believe their standard of living will fall this year, while almost one in two say it has already worsened, according to a European Parliament Eurobarometer survey published in December.
About 37 percent of participants said they had difficulty paying their bills.
Factory closings are becoming more common in the automotive industry, especially in Germany.
Between November and January, auto parts maker Bosch said it was cutting 2,700 jobs, while ZF closed a plant employing 700 people and Continental said it would cut thousands of administrative jobs.
“German industry is strongly affected by high energy prices and is suffering from the electric transition in the automotive industry. We currently do not see a turnaround in the order books,” said Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist at ING Bank.
A weaker Germany
Germany has been in recession since last year, and this affects the whole of Europe.
Consumption remains weak due to high prices.
The European Central Bank’s record high interest rates to curb inflation are hurting investments and causing the real estate market to falter.
Meanwhile, international trade, weighed down by China’s slowdown, cannot compensate for weak domestic demand.
“The eurozone economy stagnated in (the fourth quarter) and we think it will stagnate in the first half of this year as the effects of past monetary tightening continue to be felt and fiscal policy becomes increasingly restrictive,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics.
EU member states are also constrained by EU rules on public spending.
France reintroduced the electricity tax in February, which caused an increase of almost 10 percent.
“Austerity measures can push a huge number of our citizens into the hands of the far right because they feel abandoned,” warned the member of the European Parliament Philippe Lamberts.
Far-right pressure on policies
Several surveys show a strong rise in far-right parties belonging to the Identity and Democracy (ID) group.
That grouping includes the French National Rally of Marine Le Pen, the German AfD party, the Belgian (Flemish) Vlaams Belang and the Austrian FPO.
ID could become the third party in the number of representatives in the European Parliament and threaten the liberal Renew Europe club, which has similar strength to another growing radical right group – the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
The ECR includes Giorgia Meloni’s party, the Polish PiS, the Spanish Vox, etc.
The “grand coalition” that gathers the people, social democrats and Renew Europe “should remain the majority in the European Parliament, but it will undoubtedly be weakened,” said expert Chopin.
According to a study by the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, this coalition could win 54 percent of the seats in the European Parliament this year, which is a drop compared to the current 60 percent.
The far right is already putting pressure on the EU institutions, for example by supporting the farmers’ revolt in the last few weeks.
If it emerges stronger from the elections in June, the far right is likely to demand stricter migration policies and will make it even more difficult to pass laws in certain areas such as environmental protection.
The far right would also try to block greater EU integration, AFP writes.
