After the key elements of the first phase of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel were concluded two days ago, the question arises as to how the steps toward lasting peace will proceed, and there are several issues at this moment that are difficult to answer.
Two days ago, Hamas handed over to Israel all remaining living hostages and some bodies of those who had died. On the other hand, almost two thousand Palestinian prisoners were released from Israeli prisons. Some of them, at least 250, had served life sentences.
Meanwhile, immediately after the agreement on the first phase of the ceasefire was signed, the Israeli army withdrew to previously agreed positions and continued to control nearly 53 percent of the Gaza Strip.
What will happen with Hamas?
A complete withdrawal of the Israeli army depends on Hamas’s disarmament, according to the agreement, which leaves Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu some maneuvering room to say that Israel still has the freedom to continue fighting.
Hamas’s chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya stated last week that the group received guarantees from the United States (U.S.) and international mediators confirming that this agreement signifies a “permanent end to the war,” not merely a temporary ceasefire. It is unclear in what form these guarantees were provided.
A key unanswered question is what will happen with Hamas, according to Burcu Ozcelik, senior research associate for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a United Kingdom (UK) think tank.
“You have what looks like a path toward Palestinian statehood… but this is ultimately a Palestinian state in which, it seems, there is no place for Hamas. To what extent Hamas will accept this and respect it in the coming weeks and months – I think that is the big question,” Ozcelik said.
She believes that Israel will maintain what it considers its national security imperative, which is action in Gaza, “if it believes there is a credible threat to its security and border communities.”
“But at the same time, there must be a governing body in Gaza. There must be security and law enforcement. There must be provision of basic services and distribution of vital humanitarian aid,” she added.
She also noted that other regional actors, especially Egypt and Turkey, are expected to play an important role in the transition. “I think that for now all parties will want to be seen as doing everything they can to make the Trump plan succeed,” she said.
Meanwhile, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and other Arab states are pressuring Hamas to disarm, which is a prerequisite for continuing negotiations with Israel.
“All of these countries do not want Hamas to remain active. They want to see disarmament, and in that regard, we have a good pressure scenario because it will not work without pressure,” said Johann Wadephul, Germany’s foreign minister.
He emphasized that this would also provide the most important motivation for the Palestinians.
“The most important motivation for the Palestinians to turn away from Hamas is the real chance for statehood, provision of aid, and prospects for reconstruction,” he said.
The further course of negotiations could also change Germany’s stance on arms deliveries to Israel.
“If the peace agreement is successful, it will be examined whether partially suspended deliveries of German weapons to Israel could continue,” he concluded.
If the Trump plan holds after the first phase and is implemented fully, it could mark the beginning of the most significant de-escalation process in the Middle East in the last ten years.
Trump emphasized in his statement that “all parties will be treated fairly” and that the goal of the U.S. administration is “a strong, lasting, and eternal peace.”
Given that further phases of the peace plan are anticipated, which could include Gaza’s reconstruction and political negotiations on the long-term status of the territory, the coming days could lay the foundation for a new chapter in Israel-Palestine relations.
The agreement from Egypt
At the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh two days ago, Donald Trump and several world leaders signed a peace agreement in Gaza that promises lasting peace.
In a joint statement, the leaders emphasized that the agreement “marks the end of more than two years of deep suffering and loss” and “opens a new chapter for the region, characterized by hope, security, and a shared vision of peace and prosperity.”
The signatories expressed support for “the sincere efforts of President Trump to end the war in Gaza and bring lasting peace to the Middle East.” The agreement stipulates that all parties “will cooperate in implementing the agreed measures to ensure security, stability, and opportunities for all peoples of the region, including Palestinians and Israelis.”
The leaders emphasized that lasting peace can only exist if “Palestinians and Israelis can live with guaranteed human rights, assured security, and preserved dignity.” The agreement also notes that “progress is possible only through cooperation and ongoing dialogue,” and that strengthening ties among peoples “serves the interests of regional and global peace.”
Particular emphasis was placed on the “deep historical and spiritual significance of the region for religious communities whose roots are intertwined with the land-Christianity, Islam, and Judaism.” The document states that “respect for holy sites and protection of cultural heritage will remain of critical importance in maintaining peaceful coexistence.”
The agreement contains a clear message against extremism, stressing that “no society can progress if violence and racism become normalized,” and the signatories commit to “working to eradicate ideologies that threaten the fabric of civil life.”
In the concluding part of the document, it is stated that future disputes will be resolved exclusively “through diplomatic means and negotiations, not by force or prolonged conflicts.” The leaders agreed that the Middle East “cannot endure a cycle of wars and failed negotiations forever” and that “future generations deserve more than the failures of the past.”
