By lifting the sanctions, the United States (U.S.) likely aimed to reduce instability and tension in a region that is still a flashpoint, not to fund a “puppet show.” Although Republika Srpska (RS) officials may technically be respecting unofficial U.S. conditions for easing sanctions, it will be interesting to see how the Trump administration will react when they violate the spirit of this arrangement, as President Donald Trump does not hesitate long to reintroduce harsh penalties when he feels that manipulation is at work, U.S. media writes in an analysis of the political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), in light of the recently held elections for the President of RS, as well as the lifting of sanctions on Milorad Dodik and his associates.
RS recently held elections and, although there is a new president, the boss remains the same: Milorad Dodik, states the text titled “New problems for Bosnia after lifting sanctions on the Serbian leader.”
Dodik, whom the High Representative and the judicial system in BiH declared ineligible to hold political office, left the presidential position in favor of a carefully chosen successor.
“BiH should expect more of the same corruption, fragmentation, divisions, and ethnic friction that have stood in the way of the country’s development and stability for the last 30 years,” the conclusion states.
The author also believes that Dodik built his political career on inciting conflict and discord between the RS and the BiH state government. On several occasions, Dodik has called for referendums that would support either the secession of the RS or the rejection of state institutions. He has been the subject of multiple corruption investigations and faced accusations of supporting criminal networks. Dodik also boasts that he meets “regularly” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has repeated Moscow’s stance that its war in Ukraine is “very justified.”
Lifting of sanctions and new problems
The U.S. magazine, which deals with political analysis, commentary, and research, highlights how the response of Dodik and his family to the introduction of U.S. sanctions was to “transform existing patronage networks into a machine for evading sanctions.”
Despite the current situation, Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Dodik and his associates in October, and at roughly the same time, almost in coordination, Dodik withdrew from the position of president, allowing for new elections to be held, while entity authorities revoked previously passed unconstitutional laws, the text recalls.
“This extraordinary, seemingly quid-pro-quo arrangement put an end to a months-long standoff between Dodik and senior BiH authorities over his increasingly illegal understanding of power. The challenge, however, is that BiH’s problems do not end with Dodik. In addition to financial crimes, he and other Serbian nationalists and RS officials have promoted an agenda of secessionism, divisions, and alliances with Moscow. This represents both a regional security threat and a risk of spillover for the neighboring European Union (EU),” the text warns.
With the reminder that BiH is a country still recovering from mass killings and genocide against thousands of people, and that since the breakup of Yugoslavia and the war in the 1990s, a crucial but flawed peace agreement has kept BiH more or less intact, “the threat of ethnic violence is never far away.”
Russian transformation
“Although the recent elections in RS passed without Dodik, they were marked by the same nationalism and agitation that he advocates, as well as low voter turnout and accusations of ‘mass vote rigging.’ The result represents a continuation of the status quo. Dodik’s hand-picked successor, Sinisa Karan, has taken his place. In effect, RS has carried out a Russian transformation, in which Dmitry Medvedev warmed the presidential chair for Vladimir Putin from 2008 to 2012 to avoid Russian term limits. Dodik even campaigned on the promise that, when voters vote for Karan, ‘they are voting for me and the policies we have implemented so far,'” the analysis of the recent elections in RS and possible consequences further states.
The author of the text warns that without the economic controls provided by U.S. sanctions, it can be expected in the future “that some Serbian nationalists will intensify their hate-filled rhetoric, corruption, and destabilizing activities.”
“They know they face a reduced risk of consequences for their actions. The U.S. must remain vigilant and ready to prove that this is not the case,” it is emphasized.
Recalling Dodik’s words that the West will now “get two Dodiks,” the author concludes:
“By lifting the sanctions, the U.S. likely aimed to reduce instability and tension in a region that is still a flashpoint – not to fund a puppet show. Although RS officials may technically respect unofficial U.S. conditions for easing sanctions, it will be interesting to see how the Trump administration will react when they violate the spirit of this arrangement. As we have seen in trade negotiations with China, Trump has little hesitation about reintroducing harsh penalties when he feels that manipulation is at work.”, N1 writes.
