United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump last week announced that the U.S. will “very soon” begin ground operations to stop drug trafficking networks in Venezuela. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro responds that eight million people will defend the country.
Donald Trump said on Saturday that the airspace over and around Venezuela should be considered “completely closed,” at a time when Washington is increasing pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government.
U.S. strikes on ships allegedly carrying drugs in the Caribbean have been underway for months, while U.S. military forces have been amassing in the region. In addition, Trump has authorized CIA covert operations in Venezuela.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom Trump accuses of running a narco-state, claims that more than eight million people have expressed readiness to defend their country and have joined the “national defense system” after the announcement to mobilize all combat-ready men to defend against a U.S. attack. He said that more than four and a half million of them have already been trained in previous years and are ready for war.
These are probably empty threats. Media reported that the Venezuelan armed forces, counting regular forces and paramilitary formations at around 300.000 personnel in total, are weakened by a lack of training, low pay, and deteriorating equipment.
Another source said the mobilization response will be measured in thousands, not millions.
Roots of the crisis
The current escalation of tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. is not merely rhetorical. Both sides are acting as if they are prepared to go all the way, and analysts warn that this tension could escalate from diplomatic to actual armed conflict.
The roots of the current crisis stretch back to 2019, when the U.S., during Trump’s first term, recognized Juan Guaido as president of Venezuela and imposed the strictest sanctions in history on Caracas, including a full embargo on oil and an asset freeze in the U.S.
The aim was to topple Maduro; however, he survived thanks to support from Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, and the Venezuelan military.
During the Biden administration, some sanctions were eased, and limited oil exports were allowed, but after the disputed 2024 presidential elections in Venezuela, where Maduro officially “won” with 51 percent, while the opposition claims he was in fact badly defeated, Biden again tightened sanctions.
After returning to the White House, Donald Trump decided to go further from “maximum pressure” to open military actions.
A key charge of his administration is that Maduro is connected to the “Tren de Aragua” cartel, which the U.S. has designated a terrorist organization.
Since mid-year, U.S. forces have carried out several strikes on ships in the Caribbean that they assessed were being used for drug smuggling. Washington says these activities are part of an operation against the cartel, stressing that no cartel member is safe, even if formally heading a state.
“This is an open imperialist war of the U.S. against Venezuela. If the ‘Yankees’ think they can enter here like in Panama in 1989, they will face a Vietnam scenario times ten. Our guerrilla will make their lives a living hell,” Nicolas Maduro said last week in one of his televised addresses to the nation.
“Maduro is a narco-terrorist destroying his country. We will remove him, peacefully if we can, by force if we must,” replies Trump.
Venezuela plans to organize guerrilla-type resistance.
In the event of war, it would be a battle between two unequal opponents: the U.S. military is superior in every respect, better equipped and trained.
Venezuela plans to organize guerrilla-type resistance in the event of a U.S. air or ground attack, according to sources.
The plan is called “long-term resistance” and would include small military units at more than 280 locations conducting sabotage and other guerrilla tactics.
Another strategy, called “anarchization,” would use intelligence services and armed supporters of the ruling party to create chaos in the capital, Caracas, so that the country could not be governed, sources say.
Analysts note the biggest problem for the Venezuelan military is that it has become highly politicized, and its primary role for a long time has not been preparation for conventional war but maintenance of Maduro’s regime.
Andrei Serbin Pont, a defense and security expert from the Cries institute, says Maduro can hardly count on military help from allies like China or Russia.
“He is now trying to deter an attack by announcing chaos and threatening that Venezuelan weapons will end up in the hands of armed groups, guerrillas, and paramilitary formations, including beyond Venezuela’s borders.”
Risk for the U.S.
Some analysts believe there is a strategic risk for the U.S. because direct intervention could destabilize the region, increase migration flows, and fuel anti-American sentiment.
Nicholas Burns, former Under Secretary of State, believes the consequences of possible escalation and war are being underestimated.
“This is the most dangerous moment in Latin America since the Cuban Missile Crisis. If an invasion and the overthrow of Maduro happen, Russia and China will not intervene directly, but they will respond asymmetrically, primarily with cyberattacks. And they will stir things up in all the neighboring countries-nobody wants Maduro, but nobody wants a U.S. intervention either,” he said, N1 writes.
