The latest decision by the administration of US President Donald Trump to introduce global tariffs of 15 percent has once again shaken global markets and reopened questions about the stability of international trade. We examined whether the new measures could have consequences for the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the wider region.
The move follows a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States, which overturned part of the broad tariff measures previously introduced by Trump under certain legal provisions of trade legislation. The newly imposed customs duties, adopted under alternative legal grounds, may remain in force for a maximum of 150 days.
Speaking about the new measures, President Donald Trump said the administration would continue reshaping trade policy.
“Over the next several months, the administration will determine and issue new and legally permissible tariffs that will continue our tremendously successful process of making America stronger again — more than ever before,” Trump stated.
The first and strongest reaction came from the European Union. US and EU officials had concluded a trade agreement last year imposing a 15 percent import tariff on 70 percent of European goods exported to the United States. However, the latest legal and political developments have created fresh uncertainty. While old tariffs were challenged, new ones were introduced, leaving parts of the agreement in question.
The European Parliament postponed two votes in its Committee on International Trade, halting further legislative steps related to the EU–US trade agreement until clear guarantees are received from Washington.
Bernd Lange, Chairman of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade, emphasized the need for clarity.
“We need stability and predictability and we have to achieve that. We’ll see — the Commission is in close contact with the United States, as am I personally. We’ll have a new meeting of shadow rapporteurs next Wednesday to see how the situation is developing. An agreement is an agreement,” Lange said.
The key question remains whether Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries in the region will directly feel the effects of the new global tariffs.
Azra Hadžiahmetović, professor at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Sarajevo, believes the impact on BiH will be limited.
“Bosnia and Herzegovina does not have any exports or significant trade exchange with the United States of America, which is harmful, but in this situation I can say that we will not have any significant effects in terms of loss of competitiveness,” Hadžiahmetović explained.
Economist Igor Gavran notes that the situation may even represent a relative improvement compared to earlier measures.
“In this way, the customs rate on the import of goods from Bosnia and Herzegovina is reduced compared to the one that was introduced to us completely unfairly and which practically amounted to a ban on imports, because no product could be competitive with such customs rates,” Gavran stated.
Economic analysts underline that domestic authorities should use this moment to reassess economic and export policies, diversify markets and strengthen competitiveness in order to cushion potential indirect effects. Although direct trade exposure to the US market remains modest, indirect consequences through the European Union — Bosnia and Herzegovina’s key foreign trade partner — cannot be ruled out.
According to data from the Economic Institute in Belgrade, the introduction of new US tariffs of 15 percent for countries including Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina effectively reduces previously imposed tariffs that had reached as high as 35 percent.
While global markets continue to react to shifting trade policies, experts agree that smaller economies such as Bosnia and Herzegovina must closely monitor developments and strategically position themselves amid ongoing uncertainty in international trade relations.
