Although it seems that all chances for an agreement on the election law have been exhausted, we are facing the last political upheavals to try to find a solution. If there is no agreement, few can guarantee the final outcome.
Today, Neum negotiators will sit in the state parliament and try to define the points for which there is a consensus and leave room for controversial issues, although the chances of an agreement are minimal.
As it was found out, it is possible that in ten days we will see international representatives again in the last attempt to reach an agreement. One option is that European Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell could arrive in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) because of the election law issue.
However, let’s put that aside. The pessimism expressed by the politicians themselves after the negotiations in Neum raised several questions. First came the announcement from the ranks of Croatian parties about the final answer, which will be crystallized on February 19th at the session of the Croatian National Parliament – HNS (an association that brings together all Croatian parties in BiH). There are two options that are imposed, and that is the blockade or boycott of elections.
The space for a possible election blockade has been narrowed. First because of earlier messages from High Representative Christian Schmidt, but also several options for financing the elections, if the adoption of the budget would be problematic. What is a much more realistic scenario is that a boycott of the elections of all parties with a Croatian sign will occur.
At a time when Milorad Dodik is trying to belittle the state in various ways and present it as dysfunctional, a potential boycott of Croatian party elections could lead to political heat, but also with a certain risk of the one who boycotts.
Hypothetically, until the elections, Croatian parties can behave according to the established matrix. Even participate in the organization of elections. However, on election day itself, it is possible for the chairmen of election commissions, committees,and the entire infrastructure in Croat-majority places to resign and leave no room for any replacement.
In such a development, elections will be held with some problems in at least two cantons. Parties with a Croatian sign may also refuse to delegate their representatives to the Federation of BiH (FBiH) House of Peoples. However, in such circumstances, they can also fall into the trap. Either they will boycott the elections at all levels or they will participate. If they participate in the elections for the cantonal assemblies, they will accept the legitimacy of the process.
And even though there are some optimists who will say that the boycott has not brought anything good to anyone and that, mathematically, a government can be formed, the question of the functionality of the entire system remains open.
The scenario with polling stations is just one example of the potential development of the situation. And regardless of some other similar moves, the boycott of HDZ and other parties cannot be compared to the boycott of the opposition in Serbia. The boycott almost stifled the opposition there, but a possible boycott in BiH could spread to several sides. At this moment, probably none of the political actors knows or draws possible options. But one thing is for sure. The opening of the second front of the institutional crisis, which will mean the collapse of the work of institutions in the FBiH, along with Dodik’s policy in the Republika Srpska (RS), is an inevitable political diversion.
In a situation of a boycott of elections or any kind of ignoring of institutions, the command can be taken over only by the international community, but then politics in BiH should be ready for anything. And all this can be sublimated through the statement of the United States (U.S.) ambassador Eric Nelson from the negotiations in Neum: ”Every agreement is certainly painful, but be aware that if you do not agree, it will be even more painful.” Now it only remains to be seen who is more willing to suffer more pain – HDZ and related parties or parties from Sarajevo on the other side of the table.
E.Dz.
Source: Klix.ba
