According to the recently published Balkan Defence Monitor 2024, Serbia is the leading country in the region in terms of defense expenditure, which amounted to 2% of its GDP in 2023, followed by North Macedonia with 1.7% and Albania with 1.6%. The latter two countries, both of which are NATO members, are projected to reach the Alliance’s target of 2% in 2024.
Furthermore, it is expected that Albania and North Macedonia will surpass Serbia, with Serbia expected to fall to third place in the region with 1.8% in 2024.
This is the third edition of the Balkans Defence Monitor, published by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) since 2022. It covers Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.
Croatia, another NATO member, has maintained its defense expenditure at about 1.5% of its GDP over the past three years.
BiH lags behind the rest of the Balkans
Meanwhile, Montenegro and BiH lag behind the rest of the Balkans, with only 1% and 0.7% of projected defense expenditure in 2023. Montenegro joined NATO in 2017, while BiH joined the Membership Action Plan (MAP) in 2010, a NATO program supporting countries aspiring to join the alliance.
The Defence Monitor also analyses the share of spending that is allocated to personnel, on the one hand, and arms and equipment, on the other. As in the previous years, BiH’s expenditure on personnel is the largest at 89%. It is followed by Montenegro which is spending 56% on personnel and only 24% on arms and equipment.
“The constitutional structure of BiH makes it difficult to invest in the defense of the state. The majority of funds are spent on personnel, primarily for the most basic conditions in the staff and the army. This is not enough, and in the future, BiH should consider how to improve its defense budget,” said Harun Cero, project manager at the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung in Sarajevo.
Meanwhile, Croatia and North Macedonia have significantly reduced the percentage of spending on personnel compared to 2020, according to the Balkan Defence Monitor. Croatia now spends almost equally on personnel (41%) and weapons (39%). In North Macedonia, personnel account for 38% of expenses, while 26% is allocated for weapons and equipment.
Serbia spends an equal share – 39% – on personnel and weapons. The document notes that there has been a significant increase in spending in Serbia from 2016 to 2022, which was temporarily halted but is expected to increase again.
According to the document, Croatia’s military budget has significantly increased – almost doubling since 2017, mainly due to the acquisition of 12 French Dassault Rafale fighter jets in 2021.
“Everyone talks about the ‘quasi-arms race’ in the Balkans in the context of the war in Ukraine, but it started in 2015 between Serbia and Croatia. This is a multidimensional process. On the one hand, most arsenals come from the Yugoslav army, so it is not unusual that you have to buy something new. But this process needs to be done in a less toxic fashion,” said Vuk Vuksanovic, Senior Researcher of the BCSP and one of the authors of the Monitor.
He also noted that there is a foreign policy component in arms procurement.
”The elites in Belgrade believe that if we are well armed, our neighbors will take us more seriously and we will be more able to play the West and Russia against each other. It is also a part of domestic politics and domestic political marketing since the army is one of the most trusted institutions,” Vuksanovic added.
Approaching the 2% target: Acceleration after the start of the war in Ukraine
The increase in defense spending in Albania and North Macedonia is comparable to trends in other NATO member states. According to NATO estimates, spending within the Alliance increased by 8.3% in 2023, the most significant increase in the last 10 years.
In 2023, the average spending among allies was 1.82% of GDP, and 11 out of 31 NATO members spent more than 2%. According to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, it is expected that this number will increase to 18 in 2024, N1 reports.
E.Dz.
