The parliamentary elections in Germany have brought significant changes to the political scene. The CDU/CSU Union won 28.52% of the votes, while the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved massive success with 20.8% of the votes. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) saw a decline to 16%, and the Greens won 11.6% of the votes. The German elections were commented on by analyst Adi Cerimagic from the European Stability Initiative (ESI) in Berlin.
What is encouraging, according to Cerimagic, is that German voters still believe that voting can bring change, highlighting that one of the highest voter turnouts in the last 30 or more years was recorded.
“The surprise is that, in such a complex situation, despite all attempts of influence from both outside and within Germany, traditional parties still secured a majority in the Bundestag, giving them one last chance to address the challenges. If they fail to do so in the coming period, I wouldn’t rule out scenarios in Germany similar to those elsewhere – not just the strengthening of non-traditional parties but also extreme transformations of these traditional parties,” he emphasized.
Regarding the formation of a coalition for the new government, Cerimagic explains that, given the election results, Merz will be the weakest conservative chancellor when and if he forms a new government. He adds that Merz’s plan is to enter coalition negotiations with the SPD and, under the pressure of developments in Europe and Germany, quickly finalize a coalition agreement, which traditionally consists of hundreds of pages and is highly detailed in Germany. The goal is to complete this process by Easter or the end of April, so that Germany, compared to last time, forms a government more quickly.
The SPD, which came in first place in the last elections in 2021, has now fallen to third place with only 16.2% of the votes. This decline, according to Cerimagic, was caused partly by the weakness of Olaf Scholz, who, in the eyes of German voters and citizens, failed to fulfill the task given to him in 2021.
“He was unable to lead a complex coalition or assert himself as a leader ready to make decisive decisions. He was seen as a pale copy of what a chancellor should be. On the other hand, the economic situation in Germany – inflation, the economy, everyday life – despite all the reforms implemented by the previous government, did not translate into everyday reality. All of the SPD’s promises to improve life, the economy, and the social system fell flat; they were not perceived as credible. A large number of voters shifted to the far left and other parties,” Cerimagic explained.
Commenting on the moves of the new United States (U.S.)administration regarding the end of the war in Ukraine and “burying the hatchet” with Moscow, Cerimagic recalls Merz’s statement immediately after the election results were announced, in which he stated that his government’s goal is complete independence of Germany and Europe from the U.S.
“This, in some ways, resembles a teenager turning 18, gaining the right to live independently, but often lacking the conditions to do so. Whether Merz and the European Union (EU) will succeed in gathering resources – security, military investments, and economic resources – to become as independent from the U.S. as possible will depend on this promise. Regarding the burying of the hatchet, President Donald Trump’s announcement and the new administration’s desire to achieve this have been clearly presented. However, the methods they are using to achieve this, as well as their desire to do so as quickly as possible rather than with quality, leave things open to question,” said Cerimagic.
In the next Bundestag term, there will be three representatives of Bosnian and Herzegovinian (BiH) origin: Adis Ahmetovic, Jasmina Hostert, and Boris Mijatovic. How significant is this for BiH? Cerimagic considers it positive that this time there is no euphoria in BiH and regional media over the fact that people from this region are in the Bundestag.
“When it comes to policy toward the region and BiH, I wouldn’t expect any changes. The first indications will come during coalition negotiations regarding security and enlargement. However, if we talk about concrete consequences, I expect the Berlin Process to continue. For Berlin, it’s not a process that requires massive capital investment, but it yields solid results,” he stressed.
Regarding EU enlargement policy, he stated that the SPD, which supports enlargement and accelerating the process, failed to bring the issue to a more concrete level when they held the chancellorship.
“Not much is expected from BiH; failure to fulfill obligations is creating nervousness in Brussels”
“Now, conservatives, who are more skeptical about enlargement and setting a framework for EU accession, will be leading the process,” Cerimagic explained, adding that Merz’s personal stance on enlargement is not clearly defined. He is more inclined toward solutions that would allow regional countries to be included through Schengen or the single market while the EU consolidation process continues.
Brussels is waiting for BiH to fulfill the conditions for setting a date to start negotiations. What if BiH misses this opportunity?
“Nothing, it will wait for the next moment for it to happen. What creates nervousness in Brussels and in EU member states that are friendly toward BiH is that politicians in BiH are not ready to seize this opportunity. Not much is expected from BiH – just a certain number of laws and decisions, some basic and small steps. In return, negotiations would be opened, which is not a huge reward for BiH, and Brussels is aware of that. However, it would allow BiH to avoid being in the same group as Kosovo and Georgia, who are nowhere near the beginning of accession negotiations,” Cerimagic concluded, N1 writes.
