Economic experts from Goldman Sachs, James Moberly, and Sven Jari Stehn, have estimated that the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States (U.S.) could cost the European Union (EU) at least one percent of its GDP, or 150 billion euros.
According to these experts, Donald Trump is now the favorite to return to the White House after surviving an assassination attempt. Political analysts in the U.S. estimate that Trump has a 71 percent chance of winning, while the current U.S. president has about an 18 percent chance of victory.
However, his economic policies are causing concern in Europe. He has announced plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on all imported goods into the U.S., which includes Europe.
Given that many EU countries export significant amounts of goods to the U.S., such a policy would undoubtedly be costly for the EU and its member states.
The analysis indicates that Germany would be the biggest loser, followed by Italy and Finland.
Besides the tariff policy on imported goods, Europe is also worried about Trump’s statements regarding NATO and Ukraine. He has announced plans to again demand that all member states of the alliance increase their defense spending to two percent of GDP.
Additionally, it is expected that Trump would significantly reduce or even cut financial aid to Ukraine. Considering that the U.S. currently provides about 40 billion dollars annually, EU countries would have to cover that cost.
Altogether, analysts estimate that this would cost EU countries around 150 billion euros, or about one percent of GDP. This would be a significant financial blow to the EU, especially to countries with weaker economic conditions.
