Only a few weeks remain until the United States (U.S.) presidential election on November 5th, and the tight race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump is heating up, as numerous polls indicate that Trump holds a slight lead in key states.
According to national polls, current U.S. Vice President Harris has received 49.2% of voter support nationwide, placing her ahead of Trump, who has 47.5% in the same polls.
Trump slightly ahead in “swing” states
Although Harris leads slightly in nationwide polls, the results in undecided states, also known as “swing states,” are more significant due to the U.S. presidential election system, where the candidate with the most electoral votes – not the popular vote – wins.
According to the average of polls in seven key states, vital due to the electoral voting system, Trump leads by 0.7 percentage points.
According to the latest polls, Trump holds a 0.3-point lead over Harris in Pennsylvania, 0.7 points in Georgia, 1.1 points in Arizona, 0.5 points in Nevada, 1 point in Michigan, and 1.3 points in North Carolina.
However, Harris leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin. In fact, in Michigan, where Harris previously held the lead, Trump overtook her in the past week.
Harris leads in national polls
According to an average of 11 recent polls, Harris holds 49.2% of the vote, while Trump has 47.5%.
In these polls, one showed Harris with 47% support versus Trump’s 44%, while another poll reported Harris at 51% and Trump at 49%.
Harris has increased her support, particularly among women and Latino voters, in the wake of being tied with Trump in polls from July, when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
Projected delegate count favors Trump
The U.S. president is ultimately chosen by the Electoral College, which has 538 delegates, with 270 needed to win. The focus in the race for electors is on key swing states – Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
If current polling trends in these states translate to delegate counts, Trump holds a slight edge in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Trump wins five out of seven swing states, he is projected to secure 302 delegates, leaving Harris with 236 delegates.
Betting odds favor Trump
According to RealClearPolitics, which tracks betting company predictions, the average shows Trump as the current favorite in the presidential race.
RealClearPolitics aggregates data from seven companies – Polymarket, Smarkets, Points Bet, Bwin, Bovada, Betsson, and Betfair – estimating Trump’s chances of victory at 56.3%, compared to 42.6% for Harris.
All of these betting companies predict Trump’s chances of winning at 55% or higher.
Muslim voter reaction to U.S. Gaza Policy
Polls across the U.S. show that inflation, economic issues, abortion debates, and border security are the top concerns for voters. However, U.S. policy toward Gaza has emerged as a particularly prominent issue for many U.S. citizens.
Michigan, home to a large Muslim and Arab population, is a state where this foreign policy issue could significantly influence voter sentiment, with 15 delegates at stake.
Additionally, 13% of undecided votes in state primaries held in February were cast largely in response to widespread criticism of President Joe Biden’s Gaza policy.
Many of these voters, vocal as opposition Democrats, expressed dissatisfaction with Biden’s unconditional support for Israel. Despite their criticisms, they also said they do not see Trump as a viable alternative.
