The first round of elections in Turkey passed without problems, which, considering the depth of divisions and the significance of the election, is surprising, said political analyst Adnan Huskic. During the counting of votes, he adds, there were obstructions, but no major manipulations and frauds.
“We had a paradoxical situation. Erdogan stated earlier that he will accept the results of the election, whatever they are. This is very commendable, considering that we are talking about a regime that is super-presidential, about a situation in which authoritarian tendencies in Turkey are seriously discussed, and then you have such a statement that is a confirmation of the democracy of the Turkish people,” Huskic explains.
Close fight
Turkey will elect a new president in two weeks. In the second round are Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, but the key question is who will get the votes of the third-placed candidate Sinan Ogan, a conservative and nationalist. He announced yesterday that he will support the opposition candidate on the condition that he does not make concessions to the Kurds.
“In that case, it must be said clearly, we can talk about a close fight. Although I think that Erdogan is now in a definitely better position,” Huskic points out.
From the point of view of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), the sympathies of certain political circles towards Erdogan are obvious, especially within the SDA. Huskic explains that this is a consequence of good family relations, which have never been politically capitalized when it comes to BiH.
“The situation that Dodik is on good terms with President Erdogan was never taken advantage of. The situation in which Turkey had the possibility to influence even Russia and Serbia was never taken advantage of. This was used when Davutoglu was the Minister of Foreign Affairs, so there were trilateral relations between Zagreb, Ankara, and Sarajevo or Belgrade, Ankara, and Sarajevo, and after a long time, the ambassador of BiH was appointed in Belgrade. That was the constructive role of Turkey with the AKP in power. You only have this period when these authoritarian tendencies are really growing, you have the establishment of that super-presidential system when Erdogan takes the helm of foreign policy into his hands,” explains Huskic.
It is important for BiH to emphasize that, regardless of the final results of the elections, its citizens will never lose the sympathy of Turkey. However, for the sake of itself, the environment, and on the global level, it is important that it return to its former positions in terms of foreign policy.
Turkey is balancing
“In the past, Turkey was absolutely pro-Western, without any reservations. Now this is no longer the case. It balances, Russia, and Ukraine, to the east, direct confrontation within NATO with the United States (U.S.), which resulted in a bad economic situation. The standard problem of presidential systems, especially those that strive for authoritarian models, is that decisions are made that are wrong. It would be better for BiH if Turkey were again a country that is clearly pro-Western and is a stable partner within NATO. It would be a big deal if that happens, because Turkey is the country that controls the entrance to the Black Sea, and in that case, we would have a significantly changed geopolitical configuration. I think it would have good effects for BiH as well because the weakening of Western influence in the region is a bad thing for us,” emphasizes political analyst Adnan Huskic.
In the current circumstances, he does not give his opponent too much of a chance, but he reminds that with a victory in the second round, Erdogan would assume his last mandate as the head of Turkey. That is why the key question is whether he will redefine his foreign policy positions, and relax relations within Turkey itself, that is how he will remain inscribed in the history of Turkey, the country he led in an important period filled with problems, failures, and successes, Avaz reports.
E.Dz.
