Although price growth in BiH slowed during the summer, inflation remains one of the greatest pressures on household budgets. The Central Bank of BiH estimates that headline inflation in the third quarter stood at nearly 3.7 percent, while it could accelerate again to 4.1 percent by the end of the year.
The slowdown in inflationary trends during June and July—along with a limited pass-through of rising transport and utility costs to other prices—contributed to the reduction in inflation; while it was expected to reach 6.1 percent in the third quarter, it ultimately dropped to 3.7 percent in September. However, this relative decline in inflation will not significantly change the situation on the ground.
Citizens do not believe the authorities are doing enough to curb inflation.
ZORAN PAVLOVIĆ, economic analyst
“It would be good if inflation didn’t exceed the Central Bank’s figures, but I anticipate it will certainly be higher. The IMF’s projection of around five-point-something percent for the fourth quarter is a very realistic expectation. Yet, when we look at the household level and go shopping, we realize that inflation in the food sector is actually around ten percent.”
Economists point out that forecasts and statistics are one thing, but reality is quite different. SVETLANA CENIĆ, economic analyst
“It’s not inflation, I don’t know, you know, it decreased from 4.7 to 4.2, so like now they expect it to become cheaper. It won’t become cheaper. It’s inflation on top of inflation. We depend on food the most. We’ve completely neglected agriculture. No one about agriculture. Here are the elections. Did you hear anyone talk about agriculture and food production. You have no idea.”
When forecasting the trend of inflation until the end of the year, the prices of fuel and energy products, which are unpredictable, were not taken into account. Every jump in the price of oil on the world stock markets automatically leads to price increases for everything else, so that by the end of the year, a dark scenario can be expected when it comes to inflation and prices.
