A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is looking increasingly likely, with intense negotiations on the release of hostages and terms for a six-week truce. The progress, spurred by the combined efforts of the Joe Biden and Donald Trump administrations, could bring about lasting peace.
The Joe Biden administration and the incoming Donald Trump administration are working together toward a shared goal: achieving a breakthrough in the Middle East before President Biden leaves office.
The goal is to have a signed agreement or “declaration of principles” between Israel and Hamas — a commitment that would lock the parties in a path toward a ceasefire — by President Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, according to an official familiar with the negotiations who was not authorized to speak publicly.
Officials’ statements
President Biden said in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday that an “urgent” deal is needed.
President-elect Trump has repeatedly warned that if the hostages captured by Hamas forces on Oct. 7, 2023, and held in Gaza, are not released by his inauguration, “there will be serious consequences.”
Outgoing Biden Ambassador to Israel Jacob J. Lew told NPR on Friday that Trump’s unpredictability and concerns about what his administration might do if a deal is not reached are fueling the current momentum.
“I think there is a certain fear of the unknown, in terms of what the new administration will do and say,” Lew said. “There is no difference between the incoming and outgoing administrations in terms of wanting to get a deal on the hostages now and pressuring all sides to make the appropriate concessions to get that done.”
What a deal would look like
The basic framework of the deal, according to officials familiar with the negotiations, includes the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners and a six-week truce. During that period, Israeli troops would partially withdraw from Gaza, and negotiations would continue to reach additional hostage and prisoner exchanges and an eventual end to the war.
Hamas is expected to release a group of 33 Israeli hostages, both dead and alive, including women, elderly men, and sick hostages. Israel has demanded their release.
Qaddura Fares, who heads the main advocacy group for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons in the occupied West Bank and is in Qatar on the sidelines of the talks, told NPR that Israel is discussing the release of three groups of prisoners.
The prisoners, he said, include: 1,000 prisoners, including minors, elderly men, and the sick; 48 Palestinians who were initially freed in a 2011 hostage and prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel and were later re-arrested by Israel; and 22 Palestinians serving life sentences for links to attacks on Israelis, who are expected to be deported to Turkey, Qatar or Egypt.
These are just a few of the hostages and prisoners held by Hamas and Israel. Hamas is holding nearly 100 hostages in Gaza, including the bodies of Israelis, some of whom have dual US-Israeli citizenship. Israel holds more than 10,000 Palestinian prisoners.
How likely is a deal to work
The mediators are putting a lot of pressure on all sides. Qatar and Egypt, the main Arab mediators negotiating with Hamas, are pressuring the group to reach an agreement.
A Hamas official, who was not authorized to speak to the media, told NPR that Hamas is trying to show flexibility by proposing several possible options for resolving each point of disagreement.
One of the main factors complicating the situation is Israel’s domestic politics. Netanyahu’s key ally in the Israeli government, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has publicly opposed the deal as a “disaster,” opposing the release of “major terrorists” and advocating that Israel instead “occupy and cleanse” the entire Gaza Strip.
Still, Israel has its own reasons for working with Trump to speed up a deal: it wants his help in establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and his support for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear program. There are other signs that the talks are serious.
Top Israeli security officials traveled to Qatar this weekend, and the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross—the organization that brokered the last hostage and prisoner exchange in November 2023, a month after the war began—visited Israel and Gaza, meeting with officials in anticipation of a new deal, Klix.ba writes.
