The United States has received new intelligence that suggests Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration seeks a diplomatic deal with Tehran, multiple U.S. officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.
Such an attack would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump, U.S. officials said. It could also risk triggering a broader regional conflict in the Middle East — something the United States has sought to avoid since the Gaza war escalated tensions starting in 2023.
Officials caution that it is unclear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision and that there is deep disagreement within the U.S. government about the likelihood that Israel will ultimately act. Whether and how Israel attacks will likely depend on how it views U.S. negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program.
The possibility of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has grown significantly in recent months. The prospect of a U.S.-Iran deal brokered by Trump that does not remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the possibility of an attack more likely, said another person familiar with U.S. intelligence on the matter.
The heightened concern stems not only from public and private messages from senior Israeli officials that they are considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements that could suggest an imminent attack, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence said.
Among the military preparations the U.S. has noted are the movement of aerial munitions and the completion of an air exercise, two of the sources said.
But those same indicators could simply be an Israeli attempt to pressure Iran to give up key tenets of its nuclear program by signaling consequences if it doesn’t — underscoring the ever-changing complexities facing the White House.
Trump has publicly threatened military action against Iran if his administration’s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear deal to limit or eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program fail. Trump also set a limit on how long the United States would be involved in the diplomatic effort. In a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump set a 60-day deadline for the effort to succeed, according to a source familiar with the communication. It has been more than 60 days since that letter was delivered and 38 days since the first round of talks began.
A senior Western diplomat who met with the president earlier this month said Trump had said the United States would give those talks just a few weeks to succeed before resorting to military strikes, but for now the White House’s policy is one of diplomacy.
That has put Israel “between a rock and a hard place,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official who specializes in the region.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure to avoid a U.S.-Iran deal that Israel finds unsatisfactory while also not alienating Trump — who has already fallen out with the Israeli prime minister over key security issues in the region.
“Ultimately, Israeli decision-making will be informed by U.S. policy decisions and actions and by the agreements that President Trump makes or doesn’t make with Iran,” Panikoff said, adding that he did not believe Netanyahu would be willing to risk a complete breakdown in relations with the United States by launching an attack without at least tacit U.S. approval.
Iran is at its weakest military position in decades, after Israel bombed its missile and air defense facilities in October, combined with an economy weakened by sanctions and Israel’s decimation of its most powerful regional allies. Israel, U.S. officials say, sees an opportunity.
The United States is ramping up intelligence gathering to be ready to help if Israeli leaders decide to attack, a senior U.S. official told CNN. But a source familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking told CNN that the United States is unlikely to help Israel launch an attack on Iranian nuclear sites at this time, unless Tehran carries out a major provocation.
Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program without American help, including aerial refueling and the bombs needed to penetrate facilities deep underground, a need that has been reflected in previous U.S. intelligence reports, according to a source familiar with the matter.
An Israeli source told CNN that Israel would be prepared to take military action on its own if the US negotiated what the source described as a “bad deal” with Iran that Israel cannot accept. “I think they are more likely to strike to try to break up the deal if they think Trump will settle for a ‘bad deal,'” another source told CNN.
