Intensive diplomatic efforts to dissuade the United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump from attacking Iran, including direct communication between Tehran and Washington, has led to a de-escalation of tensions in the Gulf, sources close to Arab governments claim.
Regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt, urged the Trump administration to exercise restraint. These countries warned Washington of the potential damage that Iran’s neighbors would suffer in the event of a U.S. military strike on Iran, which would inevitably also lead to a surge in global oil and gas prices.
“Things have calmed down for now,” one Arab official said. “The U.S. is giving time for talks with Iran to see in which direction the situation will further develop.”
Communication between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic enabled Iranian officials to convince Trump that there would be no executions of demonstrators, and that the number of protest casualties is not as high as reported outside the country. Officials now hope that this communication, possibly mediated by third parties such as Russia or Oman, could evolve into further negotiations in the coming days.
Tensions rose sharply earlier this week after Trump suggested U.S. action on social media with the post “Help is coming.”
Troop withdrawal and aircraft carrier movement
Speculation about an imminent U.S. attack was further fueled on Wednesday when personnel and aircraft were withdrawn from the Al Udeid air base in Qatar, the headquarters of the U.S. regional military command. Also, according to satellite analyses, the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier group is moving toward the region from the Indian Ocean.
However, Trump later stated that he had received assurances that there was no killing of demonstrators.
“We were told that the killing in Iran is stopping, and that it has stopped. There are no plans for executions,” Trump said in the Oval Office, without specifying the source of the information. His statement immediately caused oil prices to fall, as traders were less fearful of a military conflict that could jeopardize Iranian production or transport routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although the situation appears calmer, one diplomat said that it is not clear whether the military deployment is a prelude to an attack or an attempt to confuse Iran.
Sources warn that military options remain on the table as the U.S. assesses the effectiveness of possible strikes.
“Trump is ready to pull the trigger and declare de-escalation a bluff,” one of the sources said, adding that the U.S. president wants a “quick and defined outcome,” similar to the one achieved by his military intervention in Venezuela.
